{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","as_of":"2026-10-14T11:59:54.752575Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?\" — 36% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda"},"source":"manifold","id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2026\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T18:56:43.128000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10877.670930268016,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.788408279418945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.355424,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.355424,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","event_id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","question":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2026\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.355424,0.644576],"probability":0.355424,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T18:56:43.128000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":10877.670930268016,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.788408279418945,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","event_title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}