{"source":"manifold","id":"iNbCvoguw3o6d4i7Sx2Z","ticker":null,"slug":"on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike-d56426e3f49e","title":"Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)","description":"This market simulates the wager between Jonathan Frankie (@jefrankle) and Sasha Rush (@srush_nlp)\n\nDetails can be fount at https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/\n\nProposition\n\nOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmarked tasks in natural language processing.\n\n[image]Other markets on the same:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/HanchiSun/is-attention-all-you-need?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ICRainbow/on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-16T19:02:17.030000Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T23:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43509.112628310046,"volume_24hr":3015.854701918048,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.318458557128906,"normalized_volume":42.034942626953125,"liquidity":3625.25,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.964292,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)","top_outcome_probability":0.964292,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011614000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3015.854701918048,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T01:16:33.290746Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T01:16:33.290746Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike-d56426e3f49e","chart_24h":[0.952678,0.964292,0.964292,0.964292,0.964292],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"iNbCvoguw3o6d4i7Sx2Z","event_id":"iNbCvoguw3o6d4i7Sx2Z","slug":"on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike-d56426e3f49e","question":"Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market simulates the wager between Jonathan Frankie (@jefrankle) and Sasha Rush (@srush_nlp)\n\nDetails can be fount at https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/\n\nProposition\n\nOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmarked tasks in natural language processing.\n\n[image]Other markets on the same:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/HanchiSun/is-attention-all-you-need?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ICRainbow/on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.964292,0.035708],"probability":0.964292,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-16T19:02:17.030000Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T23:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43509.112628310046,"volume_24hr":3015.854701918048,"prob_24h_change":0.011614000000000013,"volume_24h_change":3015.854701918048,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.318458557128906,"normalized_volume":42.034942626953125,"liquidity":3625.25,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T03:39:46.395463Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T03:38:04.817468Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike-d56426e3f49e","event_title":"Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)","chart_24h":[0.952678,0.964292,0.964292,0.964292,0.964292]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/iNbCvoguw3o6d4i7Sx2Z","as_of":"2026-10-05T03:56:30.202507Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)\" — top market at 96% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}