{"source":"manifold","id":"iYaX3MmbB3Vj4YObQSZV","ticker":"iYaX3MmbB3Vj4YObQSZV","slug":"who-will-die-first-trump-or-biden","title":"Who will die first? Trump or Biden?","description":"Death as officially announced by a spokesperson for the person and/or by a doctor or health official","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-09T19:19:32.017000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18210.58275305901,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.12538528442383,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","the-life-of-biden","death-markets"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Joe Biden","top_outcome_probability":0.684926,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-16T23:52:42.689087Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-16T23:52:42.689087Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/joeym4/who-will-die-first-trump-or-biden","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"f1232cf5ed02","event_id":"iYaX3MmbB3Vj4YObQSZV","slug":null,"question":"Joe Biden","group_item_title":"Joe Biden","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.684926,0.315074],"probability":0.684926,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-09T19:19:32.017000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":385.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:02:11.454399Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/joeym4/who-will-die-first-trump-or-biden","event_title":"Who will die first? Trump or Biden?","chart_24h":[0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926,0.684926]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7634eb6c6f43","event_id":"iYaX3MmbB3Vj4YObQSZV","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump","group_item_title":"Donald Trump","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.315074,0.684926],"probability":0.315074,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-09T19:19:32.017000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2186.896075469913,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.203542709350586,"liquidity":405.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:02:11.454399Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/joeym4/who-will-die-first-trump-or-biden","event_title":"Who will die first? Trump or Biden?","chart_24h":[0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074,0.315074]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/iYaX3MmbB3Vj4YObQSZV","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:57.197915Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who will die first? Trump or Biden?\" — top market at 68% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}