{"source":"manifold","id":"iuBCRicRjrIzUshZxq97","ticker":null,"slug":"will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","title":"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?","description":"Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been \"soon\" many times in the past.\n\nEngineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-13T01:03:00.869000Z","end_date":"2040-12-31T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14379.769184144036,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.394996643066406,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.871032,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.871032,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","chart_24h":[0.871032,0.871032],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"iuBCRicRjrIzUshZxq97","event_id":"iuBCRicRjrIzUshZxq97","slug":"will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","question":"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been \"soon\" many times in the past.\n\nEngineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.871032,0.128968],"probability":0.871032,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-13T01:03:00.869000Z","end_date":"2040-12-31T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14379.769184144036,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.394996643066406,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T16:53:28.133514Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-any-fusion-reactor-project-dem-9695cf9c60e0","event_title":"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?","chart_24h":[0.871032,0.871032]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/iuBCRicRjrIzUshZxq97","as_of":"2026-06-21T22:09:38.868392Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?\" — top market at 87% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}