{"source":"manifold","id":"jNsS5q5am2dcVD4aRyrY","ticker":null,"slug":"will-putin-still-be-russias-preside","title":"Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?","description":"Some possible triggers for NO:\n\nHe resigns or otherwise loses the presidency before the war ends\n\nHe dies before the war ends\n\nHe is ousted from the presidency as a condition of the war ending (even if he is given a small transition period of less than a year)\n\nRussia ceases to exist as a nation\n\nHe changes position or title to something other than \"President\"\n\nDoesn't trigger a resolution:\n\nThe war extends beyond Ukraine and is no longer considered the Ukraine-Russia war\n\nUkraine ceases to exist as a nation, is annexed, or is renamed\n\nRussia is renamed\n\nOtherwise, YES when the war ends. As per questions in the comments: for practical reasons, a formal armistice that is adhered to would qualify as the end of the war.\n\nThe close date on this market may be extended as needed.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-17T13:03:31.227000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22059.823732089044,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.04512405395508,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.795275,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?","top_outcome_probability":0.795275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-06T00:29:06.775482Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-06T00:29:06.775482Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-putin-still-be-russias-preside","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"jNsS5q5am2dcVD4aRyrY","event_id":"jNsS5q5am2dcVD4aRyrY","slug":"will-putin-still-be-russias-preside","question":"Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Some possible triggers for NO:\n\nHe resigns or otherwise loses the presidency before the war ends\n\nHe dies before the war ends\n\nHe is ousted from the presidency as a condition of the war ending (even if he is given a small transition period of less than a year)\n\nRussia ceases to exist as a nation\n\nHe changes position or title to something other than \"President\"\n\nDoesn't trigger a resolution:\n\nThe war extends beyond Ukraine and is no longer considered the Ukraine-Russia war\n\nUkraine ceases to exist as a nation, is annexed, or is renamed\n\nRussia is renamed\n\nOtherwise, YES when the war ends. As per questions in the comments: for practical reasons, a formal armistice that is adhered to would qualify as the end of the war.\n\nThe close date on this market may be extended as needed.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.795275,0.204725],"probability":0.795275,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-17T13:03:31.227000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22059.823732089044,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.04512405395508,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T01:48:16.969511Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-06T00:24:58.998375Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-putin-still-be-russias-preside","event_title":"Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jNsS5q5am2dcVD4aRyrY","as_of":"2026-09-09T02:24:58.498946Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?\" — top market at 80% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}