{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","as_of":"2026-10-24T12:20:43.973370Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?\" — 6 markets; highest \"Adam Back\" at 31% as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir"},"source":"manifold","id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","ticker":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":"will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","description":"If any of the listed are confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto by the close date, their market will resolve YES. Otherwise they will resolve NO. There can be more than 1 resolved YES if Satoshi is proven to be multiple people. This will resolve based on either reporting from a reputable source (major news organization) and preferably the Satoshi Nakamoto Wikipedia page would also be updated. \n\nIf I'm missing anyone, feel free to comment and I will add them. ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/wilsonkime%2F3366b0148c23.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-24T16:35:54.423000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16889.060792904867,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.85389709472656,"liquidity":1120.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"tags":["technology-default","satoshi-nakamoto","bitcoin"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Adam Back","top_outcome_probability":0.310659,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T22:44:22.352764Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T22:44:22.352764Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":6,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"6e06a1c1167f","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Adam Back","group_item_title":"Adam Back","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.310659,0.689341],"probability":0.310659,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-25T14:32:35.095000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1576.0323027780894,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.942094802856445,"liquidity":150.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659,0.310659]},{"source":"manifold","id":"28691431fcff","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Nick Szabo","group_item_title":"Nick Szabo","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.023194,0.976806],"probability":0.023194,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-24T16:35:54.424000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":424.94,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.481971740722656,"liquidity":130.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194,0.023194]},{"source":"manifold","id":"03348b484fed","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Hal Finney","group_item_title":"Hal Finney","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.019466,0.980534],"probability":0.019466,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-24T16:35:54.424000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2399.1184252229064,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.281803131103516,"liquidity":310.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466,0.019466]},{"source":"manifold","id":"35d73e5c3bbe","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Len Sassaman","group_item_title":"Len Sassaman","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.017587,0.982413],"probability":0.017587,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-24T16:35:54.424000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1015.94,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.63637351989746,"liquidity":210.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587,0.017587]},{"source":"manifold","id":"33a3f8b22e32","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Dorian Nakamoto","group_item_title":"Dorian Nakamoto","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.010157,0.989843],"probability":0.010157,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-24T16:35:54.424000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":504.94,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.259435653686523,"liquidity":150.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157,0.010157]},{"source":"manifold","id":"79db235591d6","event_id":"jUcomRZZzjM2byLQcJBh","slug":null,"question":"Paul Le Roux","group_item_title":"Paul Le Roux","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-27T04:41:25.047000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1832.4693352029985,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.76654052734375,"liquidity":170.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T12:15:01.034926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T12:14:53.301407Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir","event_title":"Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]}]}