{"source":"manifold","id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","ticker":null,"slug":"will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","title":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\nClaim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.\n\nTypes of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as \"certain”, \"pretty sure”, \"almost sure”, “rather yes than no”, or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 50% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.\n\nIf resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.\n\nVerification of Ambiguity:\n\n   - In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 50%.\n\nA related market (the same question but 90% instead of 50%): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/3usxh9tsxd.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-03T09:55:53.640000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7690.0765867648,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.055335998535156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.3,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","top_outcome_probability":0.3,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","chart_24h":[0.3,0.3],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","event_id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","slug":"will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","question":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\nClaim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.\n\nTypes of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as \"certain”, \"pretty sure”, \"almost sure”, “rather yes than no”, or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 50% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.\n\nIf resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.\n\nVerification of Ambiguity:\n\n   - In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 50%.\n\nA related market (the same question but 90% instead of 50%): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/3usxh9tsxd.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-03T09:55:53.640000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7690.0765867648,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.055335998535156,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","event_title":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","chart_24h":[0.3,0.3]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:50:56.354731Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?\" — top market at 30% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}