{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:01:10.030011Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?\" — 29% as of 2026-10-16 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor"},"source":"manifold","id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","ticker":null,"slug":"will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","title":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\nClaim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.\n\nTypes of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as \"certain”, \"pretty sure”, \"almost sure”, “rather yes than no”, or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 50% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.\n\nIf resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.\n\nVerification of Ambiguity:\n\n   - In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 50%.\n\nA related market (the same question but 90% instead of 50%): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/3usxh9tsxd.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-03T09:55:53.640000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7738.0765867648,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.489240646362305,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.287168,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","top_outcome_probability":0.287168,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:57:14.913675Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-16T18:57:14.913675Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","event_id":"jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk","slug":"will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","question":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Criteria for Resolution:\n\nClaim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made. The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.\n\nTypes of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as \"certain”, \"pretty sure”, \"almost sure”, “rather yes than no”, or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 50% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.\n\nIf resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.\n\nVerification of Ambiguity:\n\n   - In cases where the claim is ambiguous, efforts will be made to explicitly ask Yudkowsky if his statement means that the probability is higher than 50%.\n\nA related market (the same question but 90% instead of 50%): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IhorKendiukhov/3usxh9tsxd.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.287168,0.712832],"probability":0.287168,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-03T09:55:53.640000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":7738.0765867648,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.489240646362305,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-16T18:56:24.305781Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-16T18:56:24.305781Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor","event_title":"Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?","chart_24h":null}]}