{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jl8SqjoAmfd5CXxVHxoy","as_of":"2026-10-24T05:18:21.727441Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?\" — 96% as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/jl8SqjoAmfd5CXxVHxoy","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-83e962b65318"},"source":"manifold","id":"jl8SqjoAmfd5CXxVHxoy","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-83e962b65318","title":"Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","description":"This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll and https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, but for 2030 instead of 2023/2025, and a correspondingly looser definition of 'sudden'.\n\nFor the sake of consistency, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems unclear to me.\n\nFor convenience, what follows is the description of the orignal market this is based on:\n\n> I'm picking \"trillion+ dollar impact\" as a proxy for \"obviously life-changing for normal people\". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:\n\n> 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans\n\n> 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art\n\n> 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech\n\n> 4. A technological singularity, obviously\n\n> 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere\n\nNov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fuvzn7ggwsP.png?alt=media&token=606a6788-0cb1-447f-a823-e02dc3761f76","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-29T00:44:35.361000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23743.050265999253,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.341285705566406,"liquidity":1990.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.959296,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.959296,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-83e962b65318","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"jl8SqjoAmfd5CXxVHxoy","event_id":"jl8SqjoAmfd5CXxVHxoy","slug":"will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-83e962b65318","question":"Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll and https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, but for 2030 instead of 2023/2025, and a correspondingly looser definition of 'sudden'.\n\nFor the sake of consistency, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems unclear to me.\n\nFor convenience, what follows is the description of the orignal market this is based on:\n\n> I'm picking \"trillion+ dollar impact\" as a proxy for \"obviously life-changing for normal people\". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:\n\n> 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans\n\n> 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art\n\n> 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech\n\n> 4. A technological singularity, obviously\n\n> 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere\n\nNov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fuvzn7ggwsP.png?alt=media&token=606a6788-0cb1-447f-a823-e02dc3761f76","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.959296,0.040704],"probability":0.959296,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-29T00:44:35.361000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":23743.050265999253,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.341285705566406,"liquidity":1990.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-83e962b65318","event_title":"Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}