{"source":"manifold","id":"k4kmbc5vz2","ticker":null,"slug":"if-elected-will-trump-pardon-sbf","title":"Will Trump pardon SBF?","description":"(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490) \n\nUpdate 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional \"If Elected\" from the title, as Trump won election.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:\n\nThe market will resolve after Trump's current term ends\n\nThe market will resolve if a pardon occurs\n\nResolution happens at the earliest of the above events\n\nUpdate 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal:\n\nIn the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence.\n\nThe calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25).\n\nThis rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-21T06:37:22.274000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":32449.27493900632,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.505218505859375,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.123487,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump pardon SBF?","top_outcome_probability":0.123487,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-225.42208025242883,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:12:25.873554Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:12:25.873554Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/if-elected-will-trump-pardon-sbf","chart_24h":[0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"k4kmbc5vz2","event_id":"k4kmbc5vz2","slug":"if-elected-will-trump-pardon-sbf","question":"Will Trump pardon SBF?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490) \n\nUpdate 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional \"If Elected\" from the title, as Trump won election.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:\n\nThe market will resolve after Trump's current term ends\n\nThe market will resolve if a pardon occurs\n\nResolution happens at the earliest of the above events\n\nUpdate 2025-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commutation Resolution Proposal:\n\nIn the event of a commutation (instead of a full pardon), the market will resolve based on the percentage reduction of the original sentence.\n\nThe calculation is based on the reduction: for example, if the original sentence is 25 years and it is commuted to 10 years, that represents a 15-year reduction, so the market would resolve at 60% (15/25).\n\nThis rule applies only if a commutation occurs and is in addition to the resolution events already described.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.123487,0.876513],"probability":0.123487,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-21T06:37:22.274000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":32449.27493900632,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-225.42208025242883,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.505218505859375,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:13:09.139629Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:09:24.546399Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/if-elected-will-trump-pardon-sbf","event_title":"Will Trump pardon SBF?","chart_24h":[0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487,0.123487]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/k4kmbc5vz2","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:37:19.520378Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump pardon SBF?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}