{"source":"manifold","id":"kHcZ20thI1bI5gHwOWp6","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and","title":"Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?","description":"To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+. For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.\n\n\nEDIT - 2025/08/28\n\nThe $1bn amount will be adjusted for inflation using CPI index for year end 2023 as the base year. \n\nMy discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria. I will not bet in this market. \n\nInspired by Sam Altman’s latest comments here: https://x.com/andrewmichaelio/status/1752909423826067776?s=46&t=va-CTu7Has7Aq_D1_X5Thw","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Putcallparity%2Fe65905761bc9.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-02T14:06:11.112000Z","end_date":"2031-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":117866.18509977999,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.187217712402344,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.50125,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.50125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T15:47:11.451924Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T15:47:11.451924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Putcallparity/will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"kHcZ20thI1bI5gHwOWp6","event_id":"kHcZ20thI1bI5gHwOWp6","slug":"will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and","question":"Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+. For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.\n\n\nEDIT - 2025/08/28\n\nThe $1bn amount will be adjusted for inflation using CPI index for year end 2023 as the base year. \n\nMy discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria. I will not bet in this market. \n\nInspired by Sam Altman’s latest comments here: https://x.com/andrewmichaelio/status/1752909423826067776?s=46&t=va-CTu7Has7Aq_D1_X5Thw","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Putcallparity%2Fe65905761bc9.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.50125,0.49875],"probability":0.50125,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-02T14:06:11.112000Z","end_date":"2031-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":117866.18509977999,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":51.187217712402344,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:32:53.808897Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T15:45:05.613456Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Putcallparity/will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and","event_title":"Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/kHcZ20thI1bI5gHwOWp6","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:48:06.360548Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?\" — top market at 50% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}