{"source":"manifold","id":"kHyCZAry3m4IOjpJJBI1","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-be-alive-by-31-de","title":"Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?","description":"This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026. The health and longevity of former presidents are subjects of significant public interest, particularly given their roles in shaping national and global policy. Factors for consideration in this market include publicly known details about Trump's health, lifestyle habits, age-related risks, and any statistical life expectancy data pertinent to his demographic profile.\n\n\nParticipants are urged to approach their analysis and contributions with the utmost respect and decorum. Speculative discussions should rely on information that is publicly accessible and should be framed respectfully, avoiding invasive or derogatory commentary.\n\n\nThe resolution of this market will hinge on verifiable, public evidence concerning Donald Trump's life status as of the specified date. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-07T23:14:30.716000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14690.769331199468,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.56095504760742,"liquidity":170.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.943063,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.943063,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T15:47:11.451924Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T15:47:11.451924Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-donald-trump-be-alive-by-31-de","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"kHyCZAry3m4IOjpJJBI1","event_id":"kHyCZAry3m4IOjpJJBI1","slug":"will-donald-trump-be-alive-by-31-de","question":"Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026. The health and longevity of former presidents are subjects of significant public interest, particularly given their roles in shaping national and global policy. Factors for consideration in this market include publicly known details about Trump's health, lifestyle habits, age-related risks, and any statistical life expectancy data pertinent to his demographic profile.\n\n\nParticipants are urged to approach their analysis and contributions with the utmost respect and decorum. Speculative discussions should rely on information that is publicly accessible and should be framed respectfully, avoiding invasive or derogatory commentary.\n\n\nThe resolution of this market will hinge on verifiable, public evidence concerning Donald Trump's life status as of the specified date. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.943063,0.056937],"probability":0.943063,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-07T23:14:30.716000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14690.769331199468,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.56095504760742,"liquidity":170.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T15:18:46.511111Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T15:46:30.648271Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-donald-trump-be-alive-by-31-de","event_title":"Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/kHyCZAry3m4IOjpJJBI1","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:38:54.481903Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?\" — top market at 94% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}