{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/l09gunOg6s","as_of":"2026-11-13T16:04:13.264324Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Ukraine cede land to russia?\" — 5% as of 2026-11-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/l09gunOg6s","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/will-ukraine-cede-land-to-russia"},"source":"manifold","id":"l09gunOg6s","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ukraine-cede-land-to-russia","title":"Will Ukraine cede land to russia?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Ukraine cedes control of any territory to Russia through a peace agreement , or other official arrangement..\n\nResolves NO  if Ukraine maintains its position of not ceding territory as part of any peace effort.\n\n❗️Ukraine does not have to formally recognise the land as russian, just so long as they give it up for now as part of a peace deal ❗\n\nBackground\n\nOngoing peace negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S., and European officials have made progress on security guarantees but left significant gaps on territorial control. Putin has demanded that Ukraine surrender territory for the war to end, while Zelenskyy to date has refused to cede any land. Russia occupies Crimea and partially occupies Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas region) in exchange for an end to fighting. Putin has given a clear indication that he will not compromise on his demands for Ukraine to cede territory despite Trump's intensifying push for peace.\n\n.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-19T04:47:04.871000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T05:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4309.909616857764,"volume_24hr":330.49796179645955,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.371240615844727,"normalized_volume":25.728288650512695,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","ukrainerussia-war","ukraine","wars","russia"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.050948,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Ukraine cede land to russia?","top_outcome_probability":0.050948,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.052477,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":182.80237629306603,"updated_at":"2026-11-13T16:01:58.143406Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-13T16:01:58.143406Z","added_at":"2026-11-12T18:50:47.752023Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/will-ukraine-cede-land-to-russia","chart_24h":[0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.024546,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.067496,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"l09gunOg6s","event_id":"l09gunOg6s","slug":"will-ukraine-cede-land-to-russia","question":"Will Ukraine cede land to russia?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Ukraine cedes control of any territory to Russia through a peace agreement , or other official arrangement..\n\nResolves NO  if Ukraine maintains its position of not ceding territory as part of any peace effort.\n\n❗️Ukraine does not have to formally recognise the land as russian, just so long as they give it up for now as part of a peace deal ❗\n\nBackground\n\nOngoing peace negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S., and European officials have made progress on security guarantees but left significant gaps on territorial control. Putin has demanded that Ukraine surrender territory for the war to end, while Zelenskyy to date has refused to cede any land. Russia occupies Crimea and partially occupies Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas region) in exchange for an end to fighting. Putin has given a clear indication that he will not compromise on his demands for Ukraine to cede territory despite Trump's intensifying push for peace.\n\n.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.050948,0.949052],"probability":0.050948,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-19T04:47:04.871000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T05:02:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":4309.909616857764,"volume_24hr":330.49796179645955,"prob_24h_change":-0.052477,"volume_24h_change":182.80237629306603,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.7564582824707,"normalized_volume":25.728288650512695,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-11-13T16:01:21.499382Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-13T16:01:21.499382Z","added_at":"2026-11-12T18:50:47.752023Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/will-ukraine-cede-land-to-russia","event_title":"Will Ukraine cede land to russia?","chart_24h":[0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.103425,0.024546,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.081326,0.067496,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948,0.050948]}]}