{"source":"manifold","id":"l68l8Utl8d","ticker":null,"slug":"was-the-january-29-2025-midair-coll","title":"Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?","description":"Resolves based on official investigation results \n\nMust have caused = contributed, even partially \n\nAND\n\nmust have been a DEI hire, defined as person who became a pilot, air traffic controller, soldier or another relevant occupation as a result [see the clarifications for how this will be determined] of the DEI policies. In case of doubt may resolve to a PROB. \n\nExamples:\n\na cripple or mentally ill traffic controller hired during Biden will be a 100% yes\n\na trans helicopter pilot will be 50-100% YES (depending on whether and for how long they served before transitioning)\n\na black female immigrant traffic controller hired 30 years will be a NO\n\nothers will be considered on a case by case basis\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nFocus exclusively on whether a person with DEI-like characteristics was involved in the incident.\n\nDo not assess whether the mistake would have been avoided by a non-DEI hire.\n\nDo not evaluate the individual's actual qualifications; only their membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor.\n\nNo assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies.\n\nDEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications.\n\nRefer to official policies: For details on DEI policies that privilege hiring of specific categories, refer to President Trump's executive order.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nTargeted disabilities include:\n\nHearing\n\nVision\n\nMissing extremities\n\nPartial paralysis\n\nComplete paralysis\n\nEpilepsy\n\nSevere intellectual disability\n\nPsychiatric disability\n\nDwarfism\n\nNon-competitive hiring method:\n\nManagers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST): - Transgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nResolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor.\n\nNo assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies.\n\nDEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications.\n\nTargeted disabilities include:\n\nHearing\n\nVision\n\nMissing extremities\n\nPartial paralysis\n\nComplete paralysis\n\nEpilepsy\n\nSevere intellectual disability\n\nPsychiatric disability\n\nDwarfism\n\nNon-competitive hiring method: Managers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided.\n\nTransgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:\n\nIf the individual is found to have contributed to the incident but was allowed to serve due to DEI policies and is not strictly a DEI hire, the market will resolve to a high PROB (over 50-80%) instead of a definitive yes.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Causation Assessment: The resolution will consider a linear combination of probabilities corresponding to several contributing actors.\n\nPrivilege Scores: Each contributing actor's probability will be weighted by the reciprocal of their Privilege Scores.\n\nUpdate 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Understaffing Factor Clarification:\n\nUnderstaffing Situation: If understaffing due to DEI is identified as a contributing factor,\n\nEnforcement Role Assessment: and the person enforcing the quotas is not a DEI hire,\n\nResolution Outcome: then the resolution will be a NO.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Extension: The market has been extended for another year as no final report has been released and a lawsuit is ongoing. Resolution will await the final report.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/skibidist/lzIdCgtUQn.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-30T13:02:32.971000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10827.128040643209,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.36776351928711,"liquidity":513.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Other"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.10943,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?","top_outcome_probability":0.10943,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/skibidist/was-the-january-29-2025-midair-coll","chart_24h":[0.10943,0.10943],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"l68l8Utl8d","event_id":"l68l8Utl8d","slug":"was-the-january-29-2025-midair-coll","question":"Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves based on official investigation results \n\nMust have caused = contributed, even partially \n\nAND\n\nmust have been a DEI hire, defined as person who became a pilot, air traffic controller, soldier or another relevant occupation as a result [see the clarifications for how this will be determined] of the DEI policies. In case of doubt may resolve to a PROB. \n\nExamples:\n\na cripple or mentally ill traffic controller hired during Biden will be a 100% yes\n\na trans helicopter pilot will be 50-100% YES (depending on whether and for how long they served before transitioning)\n\na black female immigrant traffic controller hired 30 years will be a NO\n\nothers will be considered on a case by case basis\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nFocus exclusively on whether a person with DEI-like characteristics was involved in the incident.\n\nDo not assess whether the mistake would have been avoided by a non-DEI hire.\n\nDo not evaluate the individual's actual qualifications; only their membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor.\n\nNo assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies.\n\nDEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications.\n\nRefer to official policies: For details on DEI policies that privilege hiring of specific categories, refer to President Trump's executive order.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nTargeted disabilities include:\n\nHearing\n\nVision\n\nMissing extremities\n\nPartial paralysis\n\nComplete paralysis\n\nEpilepsy\n\nSevere intellectual disability\n\nPsychiatric disability\n\nDwarfism\n\nNon-competitive hiring method:\n\nManagers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST): - Transgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:\n\nResolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor.\n\nNo assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies.\n\nDEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications.\n\nTargeted disabilities include:\n\nHearing\n\nVision\n\nMissing extremities\n\nPartial paralysis\n\nComplete paralysis\n\nEpilepsy\n\nSevere intellectual disability\n\nPsychiatric disability\n\nDwarfism\n\nNon-competitive hiring method: Managers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided.\n\nTransgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:\n\nIf the individual is found to have contributed to the incident but was allowed to serve due to DEI policies and is not strictly a DEI hire, the market will resolve to a high PROB (over 50-80%) instead of a definitive yes.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Causation Assessment: The resolution will consider a linear combination of probabilities corresponding to several contributing actors.\n\nPrivilege Scores: Each contributing actor's probability will be weighted by the reciprocal of their Privilege Scores.\n\nUpdate 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Understaffing Factor Clarification:\n\nUnderstaffing Situation: If understaffing due to DEI is identified as a contributing factor,\n\nEnforcement Role Assessment: and the person enforcing the quotas is not a DEI hire,\n\nResolution Outcome: then the resolution will be a NO.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Extension: The market has been extended for another year as no final report has been released and a lawsuit is ongoing. Resolution will await the final report.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/skibidist/lzIdCgtUQn.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.10943,0.89057],"probability":0.10943,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-30T13:02:32.971000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10827.128040643209,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.36776351928711,"liquidity":513.0,"categories":["Other"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-21T02:46:51.476749Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/skibidist/was-the-january-29-2025-midair-coll","event_title":"Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?","chart_24h":[0.10943,0.10943]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/l68l8Utl8d","as_of":"2026-07-21T05:35:40.485446Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?\" — top market at 11% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}