{"source":"manifold","id":"l80yg0ZEgl","ticker":null,"slug":"gpt56-released-by-july-10","title":"GPT-5.6 released by July 10?","description":"Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?”\n\nThis market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.\n\nA release counts if at least one of the following is true:\n\nOpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts.\n\nGPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free.\n\nGPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later.\n\nOpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family.\n\nThis market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6.\n\nDoes not count:\n\nRumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs.\n\nEdge cases:\n\nAn API-only release counts as YES.\nA ChatGPT-only release counts as YES.\nA limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it.\nA model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T07:45:55.810000Z","end_date":"2026-07-11T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18925.36441831774,"volume_24hr":6454.826980807583,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.1784553527832,"normalized_volume":36.39168167114258,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["google-gemini","ai-model-releases","upcoming-releases","gpt5-speculation","chatgpt"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.707676,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"GPT-5.6 released by July 10?","top_outcome_probability":0.707676,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06665500000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1964.1769646137418,"updated_at":"2026-07-01T13:00:48.464308Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T13:00:48.464308Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T09:26:27.771974Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/gpt56-released-by-july-10","chart_24h":[0.774331,0.600969,0.87448,0.684531,0.707676],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"l80yg0ZEgl","event_id":"l80yg0ZEgl","slug":"gpt56-released-by-july-10","question":"GPT-5.6 released by July 10?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?”\n\nThis market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.\n\nA release counts if at least one of the following is true:\n\nOpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts.\n\nGPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free.\n\nGPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later.\n\nOpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family.\n\nThis market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6.\n\nDoes not count:\n\nRumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs.\n\nEdge cases:\n\nAn API-only release counts as YES.\nA ChatGPT-only release counts as YES.\nA limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it.\nA model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.707676,0.292324],"probability":0.707676,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-24T07:45:55.810000Z","end_date":"2026-07-11T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18925.36441831774,"volume_24hr":6454.826980807583,"prob_24h_change":-0.06665500000000002,"volume_24h_change":1964.1769646137418,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.1784553527832,"normalized_volume":36.39168167114258,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-01T13:00:13.429363Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T13:00:13.429363Z","added_at":"2026-07-01T09:26:27.771974Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/gpt56-released-by-july-10","event_title":"GPT-5.6 released by July 10?","chart_24h":[0.774331,0.600969,0.87448,0.684531,0.707676]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/l80yg0ZEgl","as_of":"2026-07-01T13:07:56.522518Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"GPT-5.6 released by July 10?\" — top market at 71% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}