{"source":"manifold","id":"lCdu8E6ySc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn","title":"Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?","description":"Similar terms as https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos.  Resolves based on my personal sense of all AI hell.\n\nThree times as much AI-driven change as happened in 2025 is not sufficient.\n\nDifferent factions of the US army having tank battles, after being persuaded by different AIs, is sufficient but not necessary.\n\nIf everyone is dead, this market should conceptually resolve N/A.\n\nSee other Q&As in the first market.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the AI 2027 scenario: the creator considers July (when Agent-3-mini is released publicly, AGI is declared, massive job disruption occurs, and bioweapon capability is confirmed) as the earliest point in that narrative that would count as AI hell breaking loose.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve before the close date if the creator is certain AI hell has broken loose. A lack of resolution means the creator is not yet certain that AI hell has broken out.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-29T23:50:31.515000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57438.26074217837,"volume_24hr":3913.2058561733784,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.07434844970703,"normalized_volume":44.40891647338867,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-impacts","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.103295,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.103295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.13541,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3340.034309674809,"updated_at":"2026-09-24T17:58:40.408019Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T17:58:40.408019Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn","chart_24h":[0.238705,0.204731,0.204731,0.135319,0.159582,0.144808,0.144808,0.161344,0.155074,0.155074,0.155074,0.155074,0.160057,0.14,0.13949,0.13949,0.127722,0.120478,0.103295],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"lCdu8E6ySc","event_id":"lCdu8E6ySc","slug":"will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn","question":"Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Similar terms as https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos.  Resolves based on my personal sense of all AI hell.\n\nThree times as much AI-driven change as happened in 2025 is not sufficient.\n\nDifferent factions of the US army having tank battles, after being persuaded by different AIs, is sufficient but not necessary.\n\nIf everyone is dead, this market should conceptually resolve N/A.\n\nSee other Q&As in the first market.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the AI 2027 scenario: the creator considers July (when Agent-3-mini is released publicly, AGI is declared, massive job disruption occurs, and bioweapon capability is confirmed) as the earliest point in that narrative that would count as AI hell breaking loose.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve before the close date if the creator is certain AI hell has broken loose. A lack of resolution means the creator is not yet certain that AI hell has broken out.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.103295,0.896705],"probability":0.103295,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-29T23:50:31.515000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57438.26074217837,"volume_24hr":3913.2058561733784,"prob_24h_change":-0.13541,"volume_24h_change":3340.034309674809,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.453765869140625,"normalized_volume":44.40891647338867,"liquidity":2000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-24T17:58:16.827413Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T17:58:16.827413Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn","event_title":"Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.238705,0.204731,0.204731,0.135319,0.159582,0.144808,0.144808,0.161344,0.155074,0.155074,0.155074,0.155074,0.160057,0.14,0.13949,0.13949,0.127722,0.120478,0.103295]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/lCdu8E6ySc","as_of":"2026-09-24T18:04:09.857608Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}