{"source":"manifold","id":"lMRVCI3PAPoOIbTpAvYi","ticker":null,"slug":"carbon-brief-forecast-if-trump-wins","title":"Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?","description":"If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?\n\nCarbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:\n\n[image]I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.\n\nIf Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:\n\nIf the total number for 2030 is 4.5 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.\n\nIf the total number for 2030 is higher than 4.5 billion tons, this market resolves NO.\n\nI'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/).\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/carbon-brief-forecast-if-harris-win)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-09T21:51:49.513000Z","end_date":"2031-11-02T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9876.431067025322,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.75873374938965,"liquidity":1637.5,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather","Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.442657,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.442657,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/carbon-brief-forecast-if-trump-wins","chart_24h":[0.442657,0.442657],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"lMRVCI3PAPoOIbTpAvYi","event_id":"lMRVCI3PAPoOIbTpAvYi","slug":"carbon-brief-forecast-if-trump-wins","question":"Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?\n\nCarbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:\n\n[image]I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.\n\nIf Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:\n\nIf the total number for 2030 is 4.5 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.\n\nIf the total number for 2030 is higher than 4.5 billion tons, this market resolves NO.\n\nI'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/).\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/carbon-brief-forecast-if-harris-win)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.442657,0.557343],"probability":0.442657,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-09T21:51:49.513000Z","end_date":"2031-11-02T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9876.431067025322,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.75873374938965,"liquidity":1637.5,"categories":["Climate and Weather","Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/carbon-brief-forecast-if-trump-wins","event_title":"Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.442657,0.442657]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/lMRVCI3PAPoOIbTpAvYi","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:04:44.290521Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?\" — top market at 44% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}