{"source":"manifold","id":"lta9luklpr","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-arc-agi-grand-prize-be-cla-svtrhb42tx","title":"Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?","description":"Background\n\nARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization. Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.\n\nTo raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task. The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThe market resolves YES if before  January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.\n\nPrimary rule: The winning submission must achieve ≥ 85 % accuracy on ARC‑AGI‑2 (or an officially designated successor) during an official competition period.\n\nFuture changes: If ARC publishes a new test or alters the accuracy threshold, the operative condition remains “the first public, binding commitment to pay out—or the actual payout of—the prize labelled the ARC Grand Prize.”","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/vqmzjqctef.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-04T23:38:03.748000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21853.90046922874,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.895973205566406,"liquidity":1639.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.669956,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.669956,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-24T16:48:53.425293Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T16:48:53.425293Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-the-arc-agi-grand-prize-be-cla-svtrhb42tx","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"lta9luklpr","event_id":"lta9luklpr","slug":"will-the-arc-agi-grand-prize-be-cla-svtrhb42tx","question":"Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Background\n\nARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization. Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.\n\nTo raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task. The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThe market resolves YES if before  January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.\n\nPrimary rule: The winning submission must achieve ≥ 85 % accuracy on ARC‑AGI‑2 (or an officially designated successor) during an official competition period.\n\nFuture changes: If ARC publishes a new test or alters the accuracy threshold, the operative condition remains “the first public, binding commitment to pay out—or the actual payout of—the prize labelled the ARC Grand Prize.”","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/vqmzjqctef.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.669956,0.330044],"probability":0.669956,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-04T23:38:03.748000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21853.90046922874,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.895973205566406,"liquidity":1639.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-24T16:46:17.049710Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T16:46:17.049710Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-the-arc-agi-grand-prize-be-cla-svtrhb42tx","event_title":"Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/lta9luklpr","as_of":"2026-09-26T11:34:49.769029Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?\" — top market at 67% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}