{"source":"manifold","id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","ticker":null,"slug":"will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","title":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.\n\n(This is intended to capture the spirit of \"there were not just a couple of exceptional cases\" and \"there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system\" and \"they didn't just settle for 5%\".  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbOnl65vE5d.png?alt=media&token=745e5ccf-f450-4da0-b7bf-c464fa984799","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-26T21:16:32.390000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11394.712716383527,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.75495910644531,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.239342,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.239342,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","chart_24h":[0.239342,0.239342],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","event_id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","slug":"will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","question":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.\n\n(This is intended to capture the spirit of \"there were not just a couple of exceptional cases\" and \"there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system\" and \"they didn't just settle for 5%\".  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbOnl65vE5d.png?alt=media&token=745e5ccf-f450-4da0-b7bf-c464fa984799","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.239342,0.760658],"probability":0.239342,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-26T21:16:32.390000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11394.712716383527,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.75495910644531,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:33.454633Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-24T19:14:53.472876Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","event_title":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.239342,0.239342]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:28:08.818891Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}