{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:52:49.518740Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?\" — 42% as of 2026-10-29 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica"},"source":"manifold","id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","ticker":null,"slug":"will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","title":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.\n\n(This is intended to capture the spirit of \"there were not just a couple of exceptional cases\" and \"there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system\" and \"they didn't just settle for 5%\".  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbOnl65vE5d.png?alt=media&token=745e5ccf-f450-4da0-b7bf-c464fa984799","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-26T21:16:32.390000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11735.094040507722,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.278907775878906,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.420055,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.420055,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T23:20:08.696287Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T23:20:08.696287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","event_id":"m7OILDcraebaYaieTcx7","slug":"will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","question":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.\n\n(This is intended to capture the spirit of \"there were not just a couple of exceptional cases\" and \"there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system\" and \"they didn't just settle for 5%\".  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbOnl65vE5d.png?alt=media&token=745e5ccf-f450-4da0-b7bf-c464fa984799","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.420055,0.579945],"probability":0.420055,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-26T21:16:32.390000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":11735.094040507722,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.278907775878906,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T23:19:11.535741Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T23:19:11.535741Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftximplicated-politica","event_title":"Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?","chart_24h":null}]}