{"source":"manifold","id":"mXHGVOl5kaElmZwNIsRN","ticker":null,"slug":"is-it-mostly-the-phones","title":"Is it (mostly) the phones?","description":"it = \"worsening teenage / young adult mental health in the anglosphere since ~2010\"\n\nBackground reading:\n\nSome blog posts:\n\nNoah Smith: Honestly, it's probably the phones\n\nZvi Mowshowitz: The Kids Are Not Okay\n\nRichard Hanania: How I Changed My Mind on Social Media and Teen Depression\n\nHaidt, J., & Twenge, J. (ongoing). Social media and mental health: A collaborative review (massive, open, non-systematic review of the scientific literature)\n\nJean Twenge: Have smartphones destroyed a generation? (old op-ed)\n\nOrben & Przybylski (2019): The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (skeptical review paper)\n\nResolves to my subjective probability that smartphones / social media use explain >50% of the increase in mental health issues among US teenagers / young adults (measured in DALYs and/or WELLBYs) since the first iPhone came out.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FeJlEMDv8_n.png?alt=media&token=d4c3abb0-a4be-4482-8572-02566cf747c6","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-10T17:20:23.829000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3136.3079519027765,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.33243751525879,"liquidity":2115.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.684095,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Is it (mostly) the phones?","top_outcome_probability":0.684095,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JavierPrieto/is-it-mostly-the-phones","chart_24h":[0.684095,0.684095],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"mXHGVOl5kaElmZwNIsRN","event_id":"mXHGVOl5kaElmZwNIsRN","slug":"is-it-mostly-the-phones","question":"Is it (mostly) the phones?","group_item_title":null,"description":"it = \"worsening teenage / young adult mental health in the anglosphere since ~2010\"\n\nBackground reading:\n\nSome blog posts:\n\nNoah Smith: Honestly, it's probably the phones\n\nZvi Mowshowitz: The Kids Are Not Okay\n\nRichard Hanania: How I Changed My Mind on Social Media and Teen Depression\n\nHaidt, J., & Twenge, J. (ongoing). Social media and mental health: A collaborative review (massive, open, non-systematic review of the scientific literature)\n\nJean Twenge: Have smartphones destroyed a generation? (old op-ed)\n\nOrben & Przybylski (2019): The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (skeptical review paper)\n\nResolves to my subjective probability that smartphones / social media use explain >50% of the increase in mental health issues among US teenagers / young adults (measured in DALYs and/or WELLBYs) since the first iPhone came out.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FeJlEMDv8_n.png?alt=media&token=d4c3abb0-a4be-4482-8572-02566cf747c6","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.684095,0.315905],"probability":0.684095,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-10T17:20:23.829000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3136.3079519027765,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.33243751525879,"liquidity":2115.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:27.453992Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-29T11:03:46.032791Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JavierPrieto/is-it-mostly-the-phones","event_title":"Is it (mostly) the phones?","chart_24h":[0.684095,0.684095]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/mXHGVOl5kaElmZwNIsRN","as_of":"2026-06-10T20:31:13.718133Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Is it (mostly) the phones?\" — top market at 68% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}