{"source":"manifold","id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","ticker":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":"whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.816000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11183.973658828989,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.1843147277832,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","supreme-court"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Samuel Alito","top_outcome_probability":0.608062,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-17T14:07:41.930356Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-17T14:07:41.930356Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"b1a861249c24","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Samuel Alito","group_item_title":"Samuel Alito","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.608062,0.391938],"probability":0.608062,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1150.533249722118,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.400606155395508,"liquidity":81.66666666666666,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062,0.608062]},{"source":"manifold","id":"72c81355b845","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Clarence Thomas","group_item_title":"Clarence Thomas","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.289299,0.710701],"probability":0.289299,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":415.08316597844197,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.469696044921875,"liquidity":281.66666666666663,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299,0.289299]},{"source":"manifold","id":"69c87a1544fd","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Sonia Sotomayor","group_item_title":"Sonia Sotomayor","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.031567,0.968433],"probability":0.031567,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":53.43350335732296,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.916428089141846,"liquidity":81.66666666666666,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567,0.031567]},{"source":"manifold","id":"512e71dd75d6","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Chief John Roberts","group_item_title":"Chief John Roberts","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.015895,0.984105],"probability":0.015895,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":177.42627659507582,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.953023910522461,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895,0.015895]},{"source":"manifold","id":"491a2fe420b8","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Neil Gorsuch","group_item_title":"Neil Gorsuch","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012847,0.987153],"probability":0.012847,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":248.07180382844905,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.275046348571777,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847,0.012847]},{"source":"manifold","id":"34b3c028c30b","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Brett Cavanaugh","group_item_title":"Brett Cavanaugh","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011431,0.988569],"probability":0.011431,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":208.84983233853674,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.585643768310547,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431,0.011431]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d2c25423448f","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Elena Kagan","group_item_title":"Elena Kagan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.010282,0.989718],"probability":0.010282,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":172.33703468333914,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.842220306396484,"liquidity":81.66666666666666,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282,0.010282]},{"source":"manifold","id":"73ea93c3845e","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Ketanji Brown Jackson","group_item_title":"Ketanji Brown Jackson","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14.364294444742313,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.7642147541046143,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"a69b35b665c9","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Amy Coney Barrett","group_item_title":"Amy Coney Barrett","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10.700313021216164,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.2404236793518066,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5fd06115435b","event_id":"mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000617,0.999383],"probability":0.000617,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-09T15:38:16.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:11.998050Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T03:07:04.932671Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanEarle/whose-departure-will-cause-the-next","event_title":"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?","chart_24h":[0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617,0.000617]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/mYTZt7GuA0d68E95M5Gn","as_of":"2026-09-09T03:23:00.947249Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?\" — top market at 61% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}