{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ms8E3KTqmwBnhUcw0pva","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:01:08.680944Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?\" — 76% as of 2026-06-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ms8E3KTqmwBnhUcw0pva","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-polling-show-that-humans-perce"},"source":"manifold","id":"ms8E3KTqmwBnhUcw0pva","ticker":null,"slug":"will-polling-show-that-humans-perce","title":"Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?","description":"For this market to resolve \"YES\":\n\nWe need three major polls with a >50% \"yes\" response to some variant of the question \"Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race\" (not just to jobs). \n\nWe need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.\n\nIf we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FWK7vfFYX3K.png?alt=media&token=36f6434c-27f1-4e7c-894c-315549c8e630","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-24T01:08:54.628000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14520.584432017184,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.780357360839844,"liquidity":1235.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.760086,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.760086,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-polling-show-that-humans-perce","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ms8E3KTqmwBnhUcw0pva","event_id":"ms8E3KTqmwBnhUcw0pva","slug":"will-polling-show-that-humans-perce","question":"Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"For this market to resolve \"YES\":\n\nWe need three major polls with a >50% \"yes\" response to some variant of the question \"Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race\" (not just to jobs). \n\nWe need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.\n\nIf we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FWK7vfFYX3K.png?alt=media&token=36f6434c-27f1-4e7c-894c-315549c8e630","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.760086,0.239914],"probability":0.760086,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-24T01:08:54.628000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":14520.584432017184,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.780357360839844,"liquidity":1235.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-19T06:58:31.342312Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-polling-show-that-humans-perce","event_title":"Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}