{"source":"manifold","id":"n11RVQGrzZDfIfU0QkeW","ticker":null,"slug":"will-sf-homelessness-be-solved-by-2","title":"Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?","description":"For purposes of this market, I will consider SF homelessness to be \"solved\" if there (i) is estimated to be fewer than 500 people in SF living in homelessness, or (ii) I determine, by my personal judgment using the information available to me, that SF homelessness in 2040 is not a humanitarian issue. \n\n\nFor reference, as of 2022 there are an estimated ~7.5k people living in homelessness. I will use a data source akin to this for market evaluation: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population\n\n\nI may bet in this market. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-16T17:51:57.203000Z","end_date":"2041-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17571.134599517954,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.86239242553711,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Other"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.25,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.25,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-sf-homelessness-be-solved-by-2","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"n11RVQGrzZDfIfU0QkeW","event_id":"n11RVQGrzZDfIfU0QkeW","slug":"will-sf-homelessness-be-solved-by-2","question":"Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"For purposes of this market, I will consider SF homelessness to be \"solved\" if there (i) is estimated to be fewer than 500 people in SF living in homelessness, or (ii) I determine, by my personal judgment using the information available to me, that SF homelessness in 2040 is not a humanitarian issue. \n\n\nFor reference, as of 2022 there are an estimated ~7.5k people living in homelessness. I will use a data source akin to this for market evaluation: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population\n\n\nI may bet in this market. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-16T17:51:57.203000Z","end_date":"2041-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17571.134599517954,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.86239242553711,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Other"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-sf-homelessness-be-solved-by-2","event_title":"Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/n11RVQGrzZDfIfU0QkeW","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:15:31.580901Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?\" — top market at 25% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}