{"source":"manifold","id":"nQQU9OOlIO","ticker":null,"slug":"new-iranian-supreme-leader-is-chose","title":"New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.","description":"Update 2026-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the date of death, not the date of injury.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will delay resolution due to uncertainty about whether the subject is currently alive. The market may remain unresolved for an extended period while the situation becomes clearer.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T00:57:19.080000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23794.748303507324,"volume_24hr":50.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166234970092773,"normalized_volume":38.12211608886719,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.050775,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.","top_outcome_probability":0.050775,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.001133000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-93.53890732258796,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:08:29.512476Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:08:29.512476Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T05:21:42.319163Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/new-iranian-supreme-leader-is-chose","chart_24h":[0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"nQQU9OOlIO","event_id":"nQQU9OOlIO","slug":"new-iranian-supreme-leader-is-chose","question":"New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.","group_item_title":null,"description":"Update 2026-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the date of death, not the date of injury.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will delay resolution due to uncertainty about whether the subject is currently alive. The market may remain unresolved for an extended period while the situation becomes clearer.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.050775,0.949225],"probability":0.050775,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T00:57:19.080000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23794.748303507324,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.001133000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-93.53890732258796,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166234970092773,"normalized_volume":38.12211608886719,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:06:37.753950Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:06:37.753950Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T05:21:42.319163Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/new-iranian-supreme-leader-is-chose","event_title":"New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.","chart_24h":[0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.051908,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775,0.050775]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/nQQU9OOlIO","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:19:18.163328Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}