{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/nSHdpQmoCdt35dkumGIn","as_of":"2026-10-24T16:08:03.587801Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?\" — 73 markets; highest \"Venezuela\" at 95% as of 2026-05-05 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/nSHdpQmoCdt35dkumGIn","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/which-of-these-nations-will-experie"},"source":"manifold","id":"nSHdpQmoCdt35dkumGIn","ticker":"nSHdpQmoCdt35dkumGIn","slug":"which-of-these-nations-will-experie","title":"Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?","description":"Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit. \n\nCopying the criteria from there:\n\nA coup d'etat is an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. Coups are often proceeded by political unrest/instability, and can often serve as a turning point in a nation's history. Wide speculation exists on the possibility of coups in various countries.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before 12:00 AM on January 1, 2040, the majority of these sources unambiguously report that a successful coup d'etat has taken place in the country in question:\n\nThe Economist (United Kingdom)\n\nReuters (United Kingdom)\n\nWION (India)\n\nThe Associated Press (United States)\n\nThe BBC (United Kingdom)\n\nAl Jazeera (Qatar)\n\nSouth China Morning Post (Hong Kong/People's Republic of China)\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War (United States)\n\nInternational Crisis Group (Belgium)\n\nTASS (Russia)\n\nCGTN (People's Republic of China)\n\nPressTV (Iran)\n\nJerusalem Post (Israel)\n\nThe United Nations (International)\n\nGiven the number of sources, forecasters should not expect Metaculus staff to do an exhaustive search of each resolution source. Each question will resolve No by default, unless an initial search shows some stories referencing a coup d'stat, in which case Metaculus staff will check all of the sources above.\n\nDue to the nature of coups d'etat, media outlets are frequently taken over or manipulated in order to serve the interests of certain political factions. As such, if an alleged coup d'etat takes place in a country in which one or more of the above organizations are based, only sources NOT based in that country will be considered for the resolution of this question. For example, if an alleged coup d'etat were to take place in the United Kingdom, reporting from The Economist, Reuters, and the BBC would not be considered for resolving this question, and it would only be resolved as Yes if a majority of the remaining organizations listed above reported that a coup d'etat had taken place in the UK.\n\nFine Print\n\nIf an equal number of credible sources report that a coup d'etat has taken place in the country in question, and the remainder do not, the question resolves Ambiguously.\n\nIn the event that one or more of the resolution sources become defunct, it will be removed from the list and not considered in resolving this question. 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