{"source":"manifold","id":"nf4QhoSMOmoa9m5iLpDt","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-united-states-ban-ai-resea","title":"Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?","description":"Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states. It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.\n\nBans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.\n\nFor example, \"no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters\", or \"no recurrent neural networks\" would resolve this market to YES. \"No AI-generated pornography\" or \"no AI designed to operate a military drone\" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.\n\nIn essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence. I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtB6OaWv7Yi.png?alt=media&token=32466f11-8d62-4a8b-9c3d-9b9ebeb23a7f","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-10T16:57:54.910000Z","end_date":"2038-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3801.6194666010097,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.50979995727539,"liquidity":1790.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.23504,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?","top_outcome_probability":0.23504,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T13:53:18.725290Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T13:53:18.725290Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-united-states-ban-ai-resea","chart_24h":[0.23504,0.23504],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"nf4QhoSMOmoa9m5iLpDt","event_id":"nf4QhoSMOmoa9m5iLpDt","slug":"will-the-united-states-ban-ai-resea","question":"Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves to YES if it becomes illegal to develop certain forms of AI in all US states. It must either be a ban at the federal level or a ban that every state independently enacts.\n\nBans that attempt to prevent specific outcomes don't count; the ban must be targeted towards general capabilities research.\n\nFor example, \"no neural networks with over 100 billion parameters\", or \"no recurrent neural networks\" would resolve this market to YES. \"No AI-generated pornography\" or \"no AI designed to operate a military drone\" would not be sufficient to resolve this to YES.\n\nIn essence, I want this market to resolve YES if it seems the government recognizes the problems with having unaligned near-or-above-human-level AIs running around, and tries via regulation to prevent the existance of AIs above a certain level of intelligence. I'm open to a better operationalization of this concept if one is suggested.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtB6OaWv7Yi.png?alt=media&token=32466f11-8d62-4a8b-9c3d-9b9ebeb23a7f","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.23504,0.76496],"probability":0.23504,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-10T16:57:54.910000Z","end_date":"2038-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3801.6194666010097,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.50979995727539,"liquidity":1790.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T16:06:11.321453Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T13:51:22.141523Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-united-states-ban-ai-resea","event_title":"Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?","chart_24h":[0.23504,0.23504]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/nf4QhoSMOmoa9m5iLpDt","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:04:21.921982Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}