{"source":"manifold","id":"o504vzjtEklLi1zZoyQX","ticker":null,"slug":"will-halflife-3-be-released-by-end","title":"Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","description":"It need not be titled with a numeral 3, but the game must be\n\nofficially created or licensed by Valve or whoever owns the rights\n\nbe released purposefully, ie not leaked\n\nbe a continuation, narrative-wise, of Half-life 2: Episode 2. A minor addition such as what was in Half-life: Alyx will not count\n\nIt must be an interactive narrative of some sort. A visual novel would resolve this YES, a comic or book would not resolve this\n\nThere may be some amount of subjectivity here, I will try to resolve in the spirit of the market. I will not trade on this market.\n\nApr 23, 11:43am: Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030 → (M1000 subsidy!) Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FoHssJDNOO2.png?alt=media&token=f2eb961b-599c-4a99-8841-252386d7c497","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-26T22:14:15.024000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23550.17066672448,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.043601989746094,"liquidity":11400.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.691388,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.691388,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-04T01:37:22.514014Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T01:37:22.514014Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/will-halflife-3-be-released-by-end","chart_24h":[0.691388,0.691388],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"o504vzjtEklLi1zZoyQX","event_id":"o504vzjtEklLi1zZoyQX","slug":"will-halflife-3-be-released-by-end","question":"Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"It need not be titled with a numeral 3, but the game must be\n\nofficially created or licensed by Valve or whoever owns the rights\n\nbe released purposefully, ie not leaked\n\nbe a continuation, narrative-wise, of Half-life 2: Episode 2. A minor addition such as what was in Half-life: Alyx will not count\n\nIt must be an interactive narrative of some sort. A visual novel would resolve this YES, a comic or book would not resolve this\n\nThere may be some amount of subjectivity here, I will try to resolve in the spirit of the market. I will not trade on this market.\n\nApr 23, 11:43am: Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030 → (M1000 subsidy!) Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FoHssJDNOO2.png?alt=media&token=f2eb961b-599c-4a99-8841-252386d7c497","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.691388,0.308612],"probability":0.691388,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-26T22:14:15.024000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23550.17066672448,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.043601989746094,"liquidity":11400.0,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T01:35:19.451643Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/will-halflife-3-be-released-by-end","event_title":"Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030","chart_24h":[0.691388,0.691388]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/o504vzjtEklLi1zZoyQX","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:21:38.958038Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030\" — top market at 69% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}