{"source":"manifold","id":"o5AriTo7qmnzX12qCTTL","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2030-will-there-be-an-ai-that-ca","title":"In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?","description":"See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction). Resolution criteria from the post:\n\"The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books. It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references. It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest\".\n\n\nRelated markets:\n\n\n[markets]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCN58LIL8mU.png?alt=media&token=966bb48d-bdb0-4e4d-95a0-e000c12b49c5","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-03T16:31:10.634000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13749.124792691482,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.047332763671875,"liquidity":1605.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.78,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?","top_outcome_probability":0.78,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-18T04:59:03.527855Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-18T04:59:03.527855Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/toms/in-2030-will-there-be-an-ai-that-ca","chart_24h":[0.78,0.78],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"o5AriTo7qmnzX12qCTTL","event_id":"o5AriTo7qmnzX12qCTTL","slug":"in-2030-will-there-be-an-ai-that-ca","question":"In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?","group_item_title":null,"description":"See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction). Resolution criteria from the post:\n\"The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books. It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references. It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest\".\n\n\nRelated markets:\n\n\n[markets]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCN58LIL8mU.png?alt=media&token=966bb48d-bdb0-4e4d-95a0-e000c12b49c5","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.78,0.22],"probability":0.78,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-03T16:31:10.634000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13749.124792691482,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.047332763671875,"liquidity":1605.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T12:03:06.307156Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-18T04:55:02.123001Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/toms/in-2030-will-there-be-an-ai-that-ca","event_title":"In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?","chart_24h":[0.78,0.78]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/o5AriTo7qmnzX12qCTTL","as_of":"2026-07-25T22:00:23.623366Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?\" — top market at 78% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}