{"source":"manifold","id":"oDXjk9IUybWsjEiP0TP5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","title":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","description":"This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors. \n\nThis market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.\n\nI will not bet in this market.\n\nAt the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.\n\n","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FwD5guJ-UVj.png?alt=media&token=c747a824-821e-4742-9820-58804a801a3e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-02T23:58:54.137000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10424.597869132014,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.13401412963867,"liquidity":3465.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.403524,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.403524,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tossup/will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","chart_24h":[0.403524,0.403524],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"oDXjk9IUybWsjEiP0TP5","event_id":"oDXjk9IUybWsjEiP0TP5","slug":"will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","question":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors. \n\nThis market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.\n\nI will not bet in this market.\n\nAt the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.\n\n","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FwD5guJ-UVj.png?alt=media&token=c747a824-821e-4742-9820-58804a801a3e","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.403524,0.596476],"probability":0.403524,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-02T23:58:54.137000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10424.597869132014,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.13401412963867,"liquidity":3465.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tossup/will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before","event_title":"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?","chart_24h":[0.403524,0.403524]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/oDXjk9IUybWsjEiP0TP5","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:28:36.547687Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?\" — top market at 40% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}