{"source":"manifold","id":"obsIinrNcvAPrUJOH7qb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-electric-vehicles-account-for","title":"Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?","description":"Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book. Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electrified vehicles).\n\n\"Light vehicles\" here means non-commercial light vehicles (e.g., sedans, light trucks, crossovers, etc.). HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are EXCLUDED from the EV market share counts; only fully electric vehicles are counted.\n\nFor some context, in Q2 of this year, fully electrified vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all vehicles purchased, compared to 2.7% in Q2 of 2021.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-08-16T14:03:45.710000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47679.37111236508,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.56145095825195,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology","Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.262592,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.262592,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-electric-vehicles-account-for","chart_24h":[0.262592,0.262592],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"obsIinrNcvAPrUJOH7qb","event_id":"obsIinrNcvAPrUJOH7qb","slug":"will-electric-vehicles-account-for","question":"Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book. Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electrified vehicles).\n\n\"Light vehicles\" here means non-commercial light vehicles (e.g., sedans, light trucks, crossovers, etc.). HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are EXCLUDED from the EV market share counts; only fully electric vehicles are counted.\n\nFor some context, in Q2 of this year, fully electrified vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all vehicles purchased, compared to 2.7% in Q2 of 2021.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.262592,0.737408],"probability":0.262592,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-08-16T14:03:45.710000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47679.37111236508,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.56145095825195,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Business","Science and Technology","Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-electric-vehicles-account-for","event_title":"Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.262592,0.262592]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/obsIinrNcvAPrUJOH7qb","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:31:19.601725Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?\" — top market at 26% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}