{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:20:45.209251Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?\" — 27% as of 2026-08-17 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive"},"source":"manifold","id":"orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","ticker":null,"slug":"will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","title":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","description":"See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3df7-__zJL.png?alt=media&token=5b90ba63-0d29-4426-90ca-de9888d892a3","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-13T19:15:32.802000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57665.919511038584,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.201820373535156,"liquidity":11520.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.274295,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.274295,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-17T00:47:28.910994Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-17T00:47:28.910994Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","event_id":"orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK","slug":"will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","question":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3df7-__zJL.png?alt=media&token=5b90ba63-0d29-4426-90ca-de9888d892a3","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.274295,0.725705],"probability":0.274295,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-13T19:15:32.802000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":57665.919511038584,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.201820373535156,"liquidity":11520.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T14:40:57.248146Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-17T00:44:43.063207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-over-100000-people-be-conceive","event_title":"Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}