{"source":"manifold","id":"p3H6hXabhzRepqp1ETIp","ticker":null,"slug":"the-first-female-us-president-will","title":"The first female US president will be Republican","description":"Resolves Yes if the first female US president is the Republican nominee. Resolves No if the first female US president is the Democratic nominee.\n\nResolves to 50% if the first female US president is neither Republican nor Democratic.\n\nSuccession: this includes a vice president, who becomes president due to death of the incumbent, in which case it resolves Yes/No/50% based on whether they were a Republican/Democratic/other vice presidential nominee or appointee. Later positions in the line of succession are treated similarly.\n\n[image]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FIstsSKgmPc.png?alt=media&token=be5baa2a-187c-4cb8-a2f9-08e42d5b6393","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-05T00:50:15.361000Z","end_date":"2028-11-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3802.141337733067,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.510583877563477,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","donald-trump","first-female-potus"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.459946,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"The first female US president will be Republican","top_outcome_probability":0.459946,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T04:10:35.606412Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T04:10:35.606412Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/the-first-female-us-president-will","chart_24h":[0.459946,0.459946],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"p3H6hXabhzRepqp1ETIp","event_id":"p3H6hXabhzRepqp1ETIp","slug":"the-first-female-us-president-will","question":"The first female US president will be Republican","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves Yes if the first female US president is the Republican nominee. Resolves No if the first female US president is the Democratic nominee.\n\nResolves to 50% if the first female US president is neither Republican nor Democratic.\n\nSuccession: this includes a vice president, who becomes president due to death of the incumbent, in which case it resolves Yes/No/50% based on whether they were a Republican/Democratic/other vice presidential nominee or appointee. Later positions in the line of succession are treated similarly.\n\n[image]","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FIstsSKgmPc.png?alt=media&token=be5baa2a-187c-4cb8-a2f9-08e42d5b6393","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.459946,0.540054],"probability":0.459946,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-05T00:50:15.361000Z","end_date":"2028-11-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3802.141337733067,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.510583877563477,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T05:00:51.705424Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T04:10:28.917181Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/the-first-female-us-president-will","event_title":"The first female US president will be Republican","chart_24h":[0.459946,0.459946]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/p3H6hXabhzRepqp1ETIp","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:13:55.708744Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"The first female US president will be Republican\" — top market at 46% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}