{"source":"manifold","id":"pth6uLtIyg","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","title":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","description":"The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nI won’t be betting on this market. \n\nUpdate 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.\n\nThe intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7dPzEE01ou.png?alt=media&token=38735097-0831-4da0-bb0a-1fe112c5738d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-12T19:10:25.706000Z","end_date":"2029-01-19T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":541540.5957846896,"volume_24hr":50.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166234970092773,"normalized_volume":65.4307632446289,"liquidity":1250.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","donald-trump","us-politics","magaland"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.21,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","top_outcome_probability":0.21,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-30.486554871287538,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:56.781860Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:56.781860Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","chart_24h":[0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"pth6uLtIyg","event_id":"pth6uLtIyg","slug":"will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","question":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nI won’t be betting on this market. \n\nUpdate 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.\n\nThe intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7dPzEE01ou.png?alt=media&token=38735097-0831-4da0-bb0a-1fe112c5738d","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.79],"probability":0.21,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-12T19:10:25.706000Z","end_date":"2029-01-19T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":541540.5957846896,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999981,"volume_24h_change":-30.486554871287538,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166234970092773,"normalized_volume":65.4307632446289,"liquidity":1250.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:33.953818Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:33.953818Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser","event_title":"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?","chart_24h":[0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/pth6uLtIyg","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:22:21.706955Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?\" — top market at 21% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}