{"source":"manifold","id":"puLqZusPqU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026","title":"Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the \"AI Bubble\" has \"bursted\" or \"popped\" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026. \nThis could manifest in many different ways:\n- a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes\n- a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI \n- private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down.\n- governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.\nThese events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc.\nOther reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count. \n\nFeel free to ask more questions about the criteria. I will not trade on this market.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion. A Wikipedia article about the AI bubble bursting would be sufficient for YES resolution.\n\nThe market can resolve YES even if:\n\nThe stock market drop is relatively minor\n\nThe drop recovers quickly\n\nWhat matters most is whether trusted news sources use headlines like \"AI bubble bursts\" or similar language when reporting on the events, rather than the magnitude of any specific metric.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-28T05:18:15.871000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":131562.21202322267,"volume_24hr":4061.626821172417,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.96470642089844,"normalized_volume":52.13829040527344,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.103135,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.103135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.018549999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4001.626821172417,"updated_at":"2026-06-23T13:51:02.520485Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-23T13:51:02.520485Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/256/will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.10634,0.10634,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"puLqZusPqU","event_id":"puLqZusPqU","slug":"will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026","question":"Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the \"AI Bubble\" has \"bursted\" or \"popped\" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026. \nThis could manifest in many different ways:\n- a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes\n- a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI \n- private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down.\n- governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.\nThese events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc.\nOther reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count. \n\nFeel free to ask more questions about the criteria. I will not trade on this market.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion. A Wikipedia article about the AI bubble bursting would be sufficient for YES resolution.\n\nThe market can resolve YES even if:\n\nThe stock market drop is relatively minor\n\nThe drop recovers quickly\n\nWhat matters most is whether trusted news sources use headlines like \"AI bubble bursts\" or similar language when reporting on the events, rather than the magnitude of any specific metric.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.103135,0.896865],"probability":0.103135,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-28T05:18:15.871000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":131562.21202322267,"volume_24hr":4061.626821172417,"prob_24h_change":-0.018549999999999997,"volume_24h_change":4001.626821172417,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.96470642089844,"normalized_volume":52.13829040527344,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-23T13:48:30.950741Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-23T13:48:30.950741Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/256/will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026","event_title":"Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.121685,0.10634,0.10634,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135,0.103135]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/puLqZusPqU","as_of":"2026-06-23T14:03:39.123110Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}