{"source":"manifold","id":"puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ic","title":"Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?","description":"Resolves YES if the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published before George R. R. Martin dies. The book must be described as the final, concluding book of the series in official announcements prior to its publication. (If it is announced that no more books will be published, but it is widely agreed that the series was not concluded, then that would not count.)\n\nOtherwise, resolves NO when George R. R. Martin dies.\n\nThe close date of this market will be extended as necessary, it is not required that the publication happens before the close date.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-07-24T22:28:57.682000Z","end_date":"2051-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9336.578870786896,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.372644424438477,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.125914,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?","top_outcome_probability":0.125914,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ic","chart_24h":[0.125914,0.125914],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx","event_id":"puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx","slug":"will-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ic","question":"Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published before George R. R. Martin dies. The book must be described as the final, concluding book of the series in official announcements prior to its publication. (If it is announced that no more books will be published, but it is widely agreed that the series was not concluded, then that would not count.)\n\nOtherwise, resolves NO when George R. R. Martin dies.\n\nThe close date of this market will be extended as necessary, it is not required that the publication happens before the close date.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.125914,0.874086],"probability":0.125914,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-07-24T22:28:57.682000Z","end_date":"2051-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9336.578870786896,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.372644424438477,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ic","event_title":"Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?","chart_24h":[0.125914,0.125914]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/puNvdG9asK12KzLyVosx","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:21:31.432195Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}