{"source":"manifold","id":"q8dsAtt0n5","ticker":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":"who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","description":"Suggest interesting options in the comments!\n\n(tentative) resolution criteria:\n\nAnthropic, Anthropic Institute, or orgs substantially owned by Anthropic count\n\nAnthropic Fellowship counts\n\nAcquisitions and acquihires count\n\nCredible announcements count, even if formal employment/acquisition doesn't start until 2027 or later","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.200000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":39918.000198148075,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.568603515625,"liquidity":17000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["science-default","acx","agi","anthropic","ai"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Alec Radford","top_outcome_probability":0.167291,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-28T20:34:12.098310Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-28T20:34:12.098310Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.408965Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"z2zupSzqqc","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Alec Radford","group_item_title":"Alec Radford","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.167291,0.832709],"probability":0.167291,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T22:13:25.534000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2034.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.493453979492188,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291,0.167291]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OpPSLnONEP","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Nadia Asparouhova","group_item_title":"Nadia Asparouhova","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.156918,0.843082],"probability":0.156918,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2199.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.93561363220215,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918,0.156918]},{"source":"manifold","id":"C6RcpuccCE","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Nan Ransohoff","group_item_title":"Nan Ransohoff","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.125321,0.874679],"probability":0.125321,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1810.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.84046745300293,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321,0.125321]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RNhqQdzs2q","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Katja Grace","group_item_title":"Katja Grace","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.10275,0.89725],"probability":0.10275,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2325.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.254230499267578,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275,0.10275]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ONcIqO0Ptu","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Austin Chen (me)","group_item_title":"Austin Chen (me)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.09469,0.90531],"probability":0.09469,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2603.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.90717124938965,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469,0.09469]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2sptPtchUc","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"janus","group_item_title":"janus","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.066518,0.933482],"probability":0.066518,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3511.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.68285369873047,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518,0.066518]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lZtnCZQgZy","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Dwarkesh Patel","group_item_title":"Dwarkesh Patel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.065218,0.934782],"probability":0.065218,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4109.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.642791748046875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218,0.065218]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AShdsAl60h","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"James Grugett","group_item_title":"James Grugett","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.061382,0.938618],"probability":0.061382,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3450.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.57701873779297,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382,0.061382]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qLcP82cEUL","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Scott Alexander","group_item_title":"Scott Alexander","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.05317,0.94683],"probability":0.05317,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4656.901975855917,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.419876098632812,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317,0.05317]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cIQd8Od0EA","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Gwern","group_item_title":"Gwern","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.050961,0.949039],"probability":0.050961,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4620.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.370140075683594,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961,0.050961]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QhtSZ6duPQ","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"@Bayesian","group_item_title":"@Bayesian","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.047132,0.952868],"probability":0.047132,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T22:14:35.923000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3993.653207571713,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.467647552490234,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132,0.047132]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Z9pyEqcUOy","event_id":"q8dsAtt0n5","slug":null,"question":"Stephen Grugett","group_item_title":"Stephen Grugett","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.041746,0.958254],"probability":0.041746,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T16:25:58.201000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4606.44501472045,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.351781845092773,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:13.685055Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:34:06.826246Z","added_at":"2026-05-23T16:32:57.558366Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-join-anthropic-by-end-of-2","event_title":"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746,0.041746]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/q8dsAtt0n5","as_of":"2026-09-08T20:51:18.706130Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?\" — top market at 17% probability across 12 outcomes","source_url":null}}