{"source":"manifold","id":"q9yNPEqAd8","ticker":null,"slug":"will-2026-turnout-exceed-2022-us-mi","title":"Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)","description":"Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?\n\nTurnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP). The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission. In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).\n\nThe report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early. If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report. If the report is no longer published, a successor report or other comparable official data will be used.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-04T14:35:31.934000Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6442.683477734517,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.878578186035156,"liquidity":5300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.837592,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)","top_outcome_probability":0.837592,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-2026-turnout-exceed-2022-us-mi","chart_24h":[0.837592,0.837592],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"q9yNPEqAd8","event_id":"q9yNPEqAd8","slug":"will-2026-turnout-exceed-2022-us-mi","question":"Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?\n\nTurnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP). The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission. In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).\n\nThe report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early. If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report. If the report is no longer published, a successor report or other comparable official data will be used.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.837592,0.162408],"probability":0.837592,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-04T14:35:31.934000Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6442.683477734517,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.878578186035156,"liquidity":5300.0,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-2026-turnout-exceed-2022-us-mi","event_title":"Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)","chart_24h":[0.837592,0.837592]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/q9yNPEqAd8","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:38:25.585305Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)\" — top market at 84% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}