{"source":"manifold","id":"qpdlSsQzdU","ticker":null,"slug":"can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","title":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","description":"On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed. Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.\n\nBudget is somewhere between $200 and $10,00\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)See also:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2-LPPR0OlQt0)Update 2026-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the process costs less than $200, it still qualifies for a YES resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-07T04:33:08.159000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":823759.2053549383,"volume_24hr":3680.077488443465,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.656517028808594,"normalized_volume":68.3699951171875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.7,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","top_outcome_probability":0.7,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3430.077488443465,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T14:25:28.716209Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T14:25:28.716209Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T06:33:17.181565Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","chart_24h":[0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.524376,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"qpdlSsQzdU","event_id":"qpdlSsQzdU","slug":"can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","question":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","group_item_title":null,"description":"On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed. Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.\n\nBudget is somewhere between $200 and $10,00\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)See also:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2-LPPR0OlQt0)Update 2026-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the process costs less than $200, it still qualifies for a YES resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.7,0.3],"probability":0.7,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-07T04:33:08.159000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":823759.2053549383,"volume_24hr":3680.077488443465,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":3430.077488443465,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.656517028808594,"normalized_volume":68.3699951171875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T16:26:24.524253Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T16:24:41.751407Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T06:33:17.181565Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","event_title":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","chart_24h":[0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.524376,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/qpdlSsQzdU","as_of":"2026-10-05T16:43:43.718167Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028\" — top market at 70% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}