{"source":"manifold","id":"qpdlSsQzdU","ticker":null,"slug":"can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","title":"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028","description":"On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (non-explicitely-specialized for this task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’. If it turns the movie into a balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable or better to the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes. (Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed) can pick a movie that doesnt have copyright if need be. Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK. The resulting video must be about as long as the movie \n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/fvfp9L-qU7k?si=qCXEHIMcyziRmX1I)Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The movie must be theater-length (1.5+ hours), not a short film\n\nA $200/month subscription tier is acceptable for the model being tested; no explicit API cost limit has been set\n\nUpdate 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/subscription cost upper bound for the model being tested is somewhere between $200/month and $10,000 (exact limit not yet determined)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-07T04:33:08.159000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":804059.9771530674,"volume_24hr":944873.3088652845,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":69.4073715209961,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.479521,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":"2026-06-09T06:33:17.181565Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/can-you-just-balenciaga-it-before-2","chart_24h":null,"markets":[],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/qpdlSsQzdU","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:13:03.053442Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028\"","source_url":null}}