{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/r5m78geu3w","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:09:56.366396Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?\" — \"About the same as in 2024\" leads at 65% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/r5m78geu3w","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/dawnlightmelody/at-end-of-year-2026-how-difficult-w"},"source":"manifold","id":"r5m78geu3w","ticker":"r5m78geu3w","slug":"at-end-of-year-2026-how-difficult-w","title":"At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?","description":"Some example scenarios for each option (this is not exhaustive, just representative):\n\nNotably easier: HRT is available over the counter; DIY HRT is completely legal rather than grey market or significantly cheaper.\n\nAbout the same: an HRT prescription can be obtained via informed consent at Planned Parenthood or similar; DIY HRT is grey market but in practice is only infrequently confiscated.\n\nNotably more difficult: an HRT prescription requires long waits or the approval of several experts; DIY HRT is confiscated somewhat frequently or is significantly more expensive.\n\nVirtually impossible: an HRT prescription is essentially illegal; DIY HRT carries significant legal risk.\n\nHRT is hormone replacement therapy, and includes various forms of estrogen/estradiol, anti-androgens, and progesterone.\n\nIn this question, blue states are loosely defined, but generally any state which consistently would have a relatively uncontested Democratic trifecta in fair elections for the duration of this question counts.\n\nThis market is specifically about feminizing HRT because I don't know much about the processes for obtaining masculinizing HRT. If someone else who knows more makes a market for masculinizing HRT, let me know and I'll link it here.\n\nThe question asks about adults in blue states because I have seen a lot of disagreement on trans twitter about whether blue states will remain a safe haven for trans people or if we will need to leave the country for our safety, and I would like a clearer answer to this question for my own planning. If you are also interested in the answer to this question, please subsidize this market.\n\nSince this judgment has a significant amount of subjectivity, I will not trade.\n\nUpdate 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Availability is the Sole Criterion:\n\nThe only factor to consider is how available feminizing HRT is, regardless of why it became harder to obtain.\n\nIt does not matter if reduced availability is a result of direct anti-trans policies or indirect effects (e.g., 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