{"source":"manifold","id":"s5sENEnERR","ticker":null,"slug":"will-opus-5-slay-spires-better-than","title":"Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?","description":"There will be a stream for Opus 5 Jul 30 at 3pm eastern from Epoch, similar to previous ones for Sol, as per Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch) on X  at https://t.co/kusf1SFlAA\n\nResolves YES if, as per my judgment, once the experiments are both done, I believe Opus 5 has outperformed Sol. \n\nResolves NO if I think Sol outperforms Opus.\n\nResolves to 50% if I think that it is a true tie / fully ambiguous who is better. \n\nUpdate 2026-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not err on the side of an ambiguous (50%) resolution. They intend to make a definitive YES or NO judgment even if the outcome is close, rather than resolving to 50%.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-29T16:09:35.488000Z","end_date":"2026-08-05T16:06:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14106.853124005997,"volume_24hr":20227.52490214571,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":99.0440902709961,"normalized_volume":34.22981262207031,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.524831,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?","top_outcome_probability":0.524831,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.028821999999999903,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1018.9927990888355,"updated_at":"2026-07-30T15:50:40.793475Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-30T15:50:40.793475Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T07:34:13.513756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-opus-5-slay-spires-better-than","chart_24h":[0.553653,0.563582,0.57037,0.545078,0.523335,0.550342,0.53809],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"s5sENEnERR","event_id":"s5sENEnERR","slug":"will-opus-5-slay-spires-better-than","question":"Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?","group_item_title":null,"description":"There will be a stream for Opus 5 Jul 30 at 3pm eastern from Epoch, similar to previous ones for Sol, as per Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch) on X  at https://t.co/kusf1SFlAA\n\nResolves YES if, as per my judgment, once the experiments are both done, I believe Opus 5 has outperformed Sol. \n\nResolves NO if I think Sol outperforms Opus.\n\nResolves to 50% if I think that it is a true tie / fully ambiguous who is better. \n\nUpdate 2026-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not err on the side of an ambiguous (50%) resolution. They intend to make a definitive YES or NO judgment even if the outcome is close, rather than resolving to 50%.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.524831,0.475169],"probability":0.524831,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-29T16:09:35.488000Z","end_date":"2026-08-05T16:06:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14106.853124005997,"volume_24hr":20227.52490214571,"prob_24h_change":-0.028821999999999903,"volume_24h_change":1018.9927990888355,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":34.22981262207031,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-30T15:52:41.801378Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-30T15:49:44.666077Z","added_at":"2026-07-30T07:34:13.513756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-opus-5-slay-spires-better-than","event_title":"Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?","chart_24h":[0.553653,0.563582,0.57037,0.545078,0.523335,0.550342,0.53809]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/s5sENEnERR","as_of":"2026-07-30T15:53:52.889433Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?\" — top market at 52% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}