{"source":"manifold","id":"sCOZtS0y5E","ticker":null,"slug":"anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","title":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","description":"Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030\n\n[tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":479510.8313038385,"volume_24hr":200.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.799821853637695,"normalized_volume":63.22789764404297,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["iphone","apple","virtual-reality","apple-vision-pro","anthropic"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.45,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":100.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-26T03:45:46.294943Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T03:45:46.294943Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46515,0.46515,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sCOZtS0y5E","event_id":"sCOZtS0y5E","slug":"anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","question":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030\n\n[tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":479510.8313038385,"volume_24hr":200.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.799821853637695,"normalized_volume":63.22789764404297,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T03:45:18.146632Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T03:45:18.146632Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","event_title":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46515,0.46515,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sCOZtS0y5E","as_of":"2026-09-26T03:46:27.340789Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?\" — top market at 45% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}