{"source":"manifold","id":"sCOZtS0y5E","ticker":null,"slug":"anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","title":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","description":"Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030\n\n[tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":377224.92913962813,"volume_24hr":9339.28473595423,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.2665901184082,"normalized_volume":61.874420166015625,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["iphone","apple","virtual-reality","apple-vision-pro","anthropic"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.45,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0031190000000000384,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2995.711852952908,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:48:22.673936Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:48:22.673936Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","chart_24h":[0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sCOZtS0y5E","event_id":"sCOZtS0y5E","slug":"anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","question":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030\n\n[tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).\n\nUpdate 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-20T02:37:28.142000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":377224.92913962813,"volume_24hr":9339.28473595423,"prob_24h_change":0.0031190000000000384,"volume_24h_change":2995.711852952908,"normalized_vol_24hr":57.2665901184082,"normalized_volume":61.874420166015625,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:47:49.748354Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:47:49.748354Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030","event_title":"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.446881,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sCOZtS0y5E","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:03:59.998950Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?\" — top market at 45% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}