{"source":"manifold","id":"sFlwFRKqVhlCjkXj2nFI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before","title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?","description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2031:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-of-our \n\n@/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2031 \n\nDifferent countries:\n\n@/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react@/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto \n\n@/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWj5FFd4izz.png?alt=media&token=b26e7131-78e8-4afa-99bf-2f4db4d2f900","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T10:00:51.404000Z","end_date":"2031-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9966.590601289878,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.82244873046875,"liquidity":1012.5,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.20391,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?","top_outcome_probability":0.20391,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T12:27:04.550552Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T12:27:04.550552Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before","chart_24h":[0.20391,0.20391],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sFlwFRKqVhlCjkXj2nFI","event_id":"sFlwFRKqVhlCjkXj2nFI","slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before","question":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2031:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-of-our \n\n@/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2031 \n\nDifferent countries:\n\n@/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react@/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto \n\n@/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWj5FFd4izz.png?alt=media&token=b26e7131-78e8-4afa-99bf-2f4db4d2f900","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.20391,0.79609],"probability":0.20391,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T10:00:51.404000Z","end_date":"2031-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9966.590601289878,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.82244873046875,"liquidity":1012.5,"categories":["Science and 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