{"source":"manifold","id":"sHWp49pzJJYQDSsUh84H","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-belief-in-mankinds-sur","title":"Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?","description":"Eliezer Yudkowsky and MIRI currently pursue a \"death with dignity\" strategy. Read this blog post or watch this interview. I assume Eliezer believes it with 99+% confidence as the blog posts says \"0% survival\".\n\nThis resolves YES immediately, if within the next 15 years Eliezer lowers this confidence to 80% or lower. Also YES, if he extends the timeline by at least 10 years even if the doom confidence is still high.\n\nResolves NO, if Eliezer is dead by 2038 no matter what reason (AI or not).\n\nAlso NO, if he still forecasts certain doom like today.\n\nClarification 2023-07-03: Lowering doom, then dying, still resolves YES.\n\nChange 2023-03-14: Removed the \"3-15 years timeline\" since I believe Eliezer probably did not intend his words to be taken as a timeline forecast. In its place, if he makes a statement that doom is \"delayed by 10+ years\" resolves as YES. Implicitly, an additional NO resolution is if he is alive but still predicting doom at the time of close.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8PYnyKkHEv.png?alt=media&token=19e2e352-4c2c-4960-a5ef-a97566c2b7d5","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-10T17:32:09.231000Z","end_date":"2038-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14372.671368045942,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.35538864135742,"liquidity":1855.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.55176,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?","top_outcome_probability":0.55176,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-14T10:08:34.342537Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-14T10:08:34.342537Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-eliezer-belief-in-mankinds-sur","chart_24h":[0.55176,0.55176],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sHWp49pzJJYQDSsUh84H","event_id":"sHWp49pzJJYQDSsUh84H","slug":"will-eliezer-belief-in-mankinds-sur","question":"Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Eliezer Yudkowsky and MIRI currently pursue a \"death with dignity\" strategy. Read this blog post or watch this interview. I assume Eliezer believes it with 99+% confidence as the blog posts says \"0% survival\".\n\nThis resolves YES immediately, if within the next 15 years Eliezer lowers this confidence to 80% or lower. Also YES, if he extends the timeline by at least 10 years even if the doom confidence is still high.\n\nResolves NO, if Eliezer is dead by 2038 no matter what reason (AI or not).\n\nAlso NO, if he still forecasts certain doom like today.\n\nClarification 2023-07-03: Lowering doom, then dying, still resolves YES.\n\nChange 2023-03-14: Removed the \"3-15 years timeline\" since I believe Eliezer probably did not intend his words to be taken as a timeline forecast. In its place, if he makes a statement that doom is \"delayed by 10+ years\" resolves as YES. Implicitly, an additional NO resolution is if he is alive but still predicting doom at the time of close.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8PYnyKkHEv.png?alt=media&token=19e2e352-4c2c-4960-a5ef-a97566c2b7d5","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.55176,0.44824],"probability":0.55176,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-10T17:32:09.231000Z","end_date":"2038-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14372.671368045942,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.35538864135742,"liquidity":1855.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-15T11:21:26.383640Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-14T10:05:00.774688Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-eliezer-belief-in-mankinds-sur","event_title":"Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?","chart_24h":[0.55176,0.55176]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sHWp49pzJJYQDSsUh84H","as_of":"2026-08-16T08:08:03.067631Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?\" — top market at 55% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}