{"source":"manifold","id":"sROy6Q5yth","ticker":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":"gpt-56-released-by","title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":44559.06796692174,"volume_24hr":4900.225573828939,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":46.50179672241211,"normalized_volume":42.99703598022461,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai-model-releases","gpt5-speculation","chatgpt","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"11.59pm ET December 31 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.953971,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-25T09:50:08.939968Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T09:50:08.939968Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.516428Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","chart_24h":[615.7125941428617,1873.2512996940052,2443.5728591422353,3179.223694587419,3092.9892029261473,4605.239158428982,4703.931768499068,4766.292806393343,4767.843302152997,4900.225573828939],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"50UEnph6Qq","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET July 31 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET July 31 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.93,0.07],"probability":0.93,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8506.608743931583,"volume_24hr":332.85874037600206,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":207.45652959574,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.745704650878906,"normalized_volume":30.723600387573242,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:16:18.125527Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:14:58.087706Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.93,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.957923,0.93]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AsRtuguAEE","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET June 30 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET June 30 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.21,0.79],"probability":0.21,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12550.551724984465,"volume_24hr":3045.183928482844,"prob_24h_change":-0.011453000000000019,"volume_24h_change":1560.6696097092827,"normalized_vol_24hr":41.4420051574707,"normalized_volume":33.421138763427734,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T10:16:18.125527Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T10:14:58.087706Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.221453,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.21]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ustsdpsqRN","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET December 31 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET December 31 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.953971,0.046029],"probability":0.953971,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":851.9999999999999,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.090158462524414,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971,0.953971]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q5sRZdLyR9","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET July 23 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET July 23 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.895139,0.104861],"probability":0.895139,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":601.0936481369245,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.37142562866211,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139,0.895139]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NyQ5OthnAA","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET July 15 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET July 15 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.832206,0.167794],"probability":0.832206,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":553.7674151332548,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.98072624206543,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206,0.832206]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SZ6uIOnnS0","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET July 7 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET July 7 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.552635,0.447365],"probability":0.552635,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":916.1280508434243,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.45925521850586,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635,0.552635]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nEcEhQtq8N","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET June 22 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET June 22 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.006246,0.993754],"probability":0.006246,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1761.774275426922,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.964244842529297,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246,0.006246]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hI9tnUNpQE","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET June 7 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET June 7 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1016.8796257579928,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.99689292907715,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qUSEIQsSNP","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET May 31 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET May 31 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5587.764063907052,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.93638038635254,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ytCnLtppLl","event_id":"sROy6Q5yth","slug":null,"question":"11.59pm ET June 15 2026","group_item_title":"11.59pm ET June 15 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T03:17:37.750000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T02:14:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12212.500418799906,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.228050231933594,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:55:37.487125Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T00:12:05.854643Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-56-released-by","event_title":"GPT 5.6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sROy6Q5yth","as_of":"2026-06-25T10:34:02.395650Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"GPT 5.6 released by…?\" — top market at 21% probability across 10 outcomes","source_url":null}}