{"source":"manifold","id":"sd0POPLRRO","ticker":null,"slug":"greta-thunberg-joins-ai-safetypause","title":"Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?","description":"Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:\n\nIs listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's \"Pause Giant AI Experiments\" open letter, Center for AI Safety's \"Statement on AI Risk\")\n\nIs listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador\n\nPublishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause\n\nParticipates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals\n\nThis market does NOT resolve YES if:\n\nHer advocacy focuses exclusively on AI ethics issues (bias, fairness, transparency) without addressing existential or catastrophic risks\n\nHer involvement concerns only near-term societal and economic impacts of AI (job displacement, inequality) without advocating for development pauses or safety-first approaches\n\nAdvocacy focused solely on AI's environmental impact (energy consumption, carbon footprint) without addressing existential/catastrophic risks\n\nCriticism of AI companies for non-safety reasons (monopolistic practices, privacy violations, labor issues)\n\nAdvocacy for AI consciousness, sentience, or model rights/welfare\n\nGeneral criticism of technology or capitalism that happens to include AI\n\nBrief or incidental mentions of AI risks within broader speeches/writings on other topics\n\nAttendance at events where AI safety is discussed but not the primary focus\n\nUpdate 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Signing alone may not be sufficient.\n\nEven if Greta is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety/pause statement, it will NOT resolve Yes if she explicitly states her support is only for environmental reasons (e.g., carbon footprint/energy use) and not due to existential/catastrophic risks.\n\nThe market is about her joining the AI safety/existential risk movement specifically, not just supporting similar policies for other reasons.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T13:03:32.507000Z","end_date":"2034-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7397.325139093977,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.373897552490234,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.546139,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.546139,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/greta-thunberg-joins-ai-safetypause","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"sd0POPLRRO","event_id":"sd0POPLRRO","slug":"greta-thunberg-joins-ai-safetypause","question":"Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:\n\nIs listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's \"Pause Giant AI Experiments\" open letter, Center for AI Safety's \"Statement on AI Risk\")\n\nIs listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador\n\nPublishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause\n\nParticipates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals\n\nThis market does NOT resolve YES if:\n\nHer advocacy focuses exclusively on AI ethics issues (bias, fairness, transparency) without addressing existential or catastrophic risks\n\nHer involvement concerns only near-term societal and economic impacts of AI (job displacement, inequality) without advocating for development pauses or safety-first approaches\n\nAdvocacy focused solely on AI's environmental impact (energy consumption, carbon footprint) without addressing existential/catastrophic risks\n\nCriticism of AI companies for non-safety reasons (monopolistic practices, privacy violations, labor issues)\n\nAdvocacy for AI consciousness, sentience, or model rights/welfare\n\nGeneral criticism of technology or capitalism that happens to include AI\n\nBrief or incidental mentions of AI risks within broader speeches/writings on other topics\n\nAttendance at events where AI safety is discussed but not the primary focus\n\nUpdate 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Signing alone may not be sufficient.\n\nEven if Greta is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety/pause statement, it will NOT resolve Yes if she explicitly states her support is only for environmental reasons (e.g., carbon footprint/energy use) and not due to existential/catastrophic risks.\n\nThe market is about her joining the AI safety/existential risk movement specifically, not just supporting similar policies for other reasons.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.546139,0.453861],"probability":0.546139,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-29T13:03:32.507000Z","end_date":"2034-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7397.325139093977,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.373897552490234,"liquidity":2000.0,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/greta-thunberg-joins-ai-safetypause","event_title":"Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sd0POPLRRO","as_of":"2026-09-13T17:03:14.050559Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?\" — top market at 55% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}