{"source":"manifold","id":"sf9wxu6w5b","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","title":"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?","description":"Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.\n\nThe prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.\n\nEdit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024\nEdit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025\nEdit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025\n\nEdit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025\nEdit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.\n\nDiplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a \"world at war,\" even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).\n\nUpdate 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification:\n\nThe mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed. \n\n(\n\nOP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment\n```\n\nHaving the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the \"no human, no war\" exploit to this question.\n\n```\n\n\nSo the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both.\n\n)\n\nThis distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor. \n\n\nUpdate 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Leaks or unauthorized copies do not count as a release. GTA VI is considered 'released' only upon its official public launch by Rockstar Games.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/EnricoCaminiti/9099da3ie9.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-07-02T10:02:51.899000Z","end_date":"2026-11-18T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1216269.6462159778,"volume_24hr":229.68136407058105,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.63874340057373,"normalized_volume":73.69682312011719,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["wars","world-default","geopolitics","gaming","gta"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.101044,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EnricoCaminiti/will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","chart_24h":null,"markets":[],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/sf9wxu6w5b","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:13:03.756257Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?\"","source_url":null}}