{"source":"manifold","id":"srlaR1wDLUCU8lej269R","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2040","title":"Will we get AGI before 2040?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2040\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2040:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-b0c572503bb2 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-31e87dc6b88e \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-j \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-ad792ee08c79 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-771d244be93f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p \n\n‌\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-c07a9e6b1dc2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-f77ec20323dc \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-e0ab80586ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-92c888722442 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqoL36COpiG.png?alt=media&token=9015e3a1-00ea-4646-8756-b918758a51b1","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-11T15:38:42.720000Z","end_date":"2040-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12745.27731712889,"volume_24hr":26.29923102101794,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.776497840881348,"normalized_volume":33.545223236083984,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.72,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.72,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-39.39313842033116,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:31:27.280522Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:31:27.280522Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"srlaR1wDLUCU8lej269R","event_id":"srlaR1wDLUCU8lej269R","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2040","question":"Will we get AGI before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2040\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2040:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-b0c572503bb2 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-31e87dc6b88e \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-j \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-ad792ee08c79 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-771d244be93f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p \n\n‌\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-c07a9e6b1dc2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-f77ec20323dc \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-e0ab80586ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-92c888722442 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqoL36COpiG.png?alt=media&token=9015e3a1-00ea-4646-8756-b918758a51b1","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.72,0.28],"probability":0.72,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-11T15:38:42.720000Z","end_date":"2040-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12745.27731712889,"volume_24hr":26.29923102101794,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-39.39313842033116,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.776497840881348,"normalized_volume":33.545223236083984,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T11:29:36.470210Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T11:29:36.470210Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2040?","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/srlaR1wDLUCU8lej269R","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:40:43.474167Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2040?\" — top market at 72% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}