{"source":"manifold","id":"su6n5h6AZS","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-interfere-with-greenland","title":"Will Trump interfere with Greenland?","description":"MOD ENFORCED CRITERIA (as originally defined on Jan 16th 2026, 10 days after market open. see this comment for reasoning):\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Trump or his administration takes any military, economic, or political action intended to interfere with Greenland's governance, sovereignty, or territorial status before the end of 2026. This includes: military intervention, economic coercion (targeted tariffs or sanctions against Greenland or Denmark), attempted annexation, military occupation, or formal diplomatic pressure through the government of Greenland to cede control. The market resolves NO if no such interference occurs by December 31, 2026.\n\nTHE FOLLOWING DESCRIPTION (after months of drift) MAY HAVE USEFUL CONSIDERATIONS, BUT IS NOT BINDING:\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve “YES” if Trump or his administration takes any direct action intended to interfere with Greenland. This must be done directly through the government of Greenland itself.\n\nBackground\n\nTrump has renewed calls for U.S. annexation of Greenland following public comments from Trump and the wife of top adviser Stephen Miller. Trump has previously refused to rule out the use of military or economic force to take Greenland. In a 45-minute phone conversation with Danish PM Frederiksen, Trump stated there is reason to believe he is serious in his statements about his increasing interest in Greenland. \n\nConsiderations (Denmark)\n\nAs Denmark owns Greenland, territorial integrity must be respected. Any actions taken by Trump that affects Denmark’s economy would have a knock-on financial effect on Greenland.  Any such actions implemented or the use of military methods would also resolve in “YES”\n\n: Additional non-kinetic actions that would result in YES resolution (Must be done by Trump or his administration):\n\nMedia Manipulation: Use of propaganda, disinformation, and control of media narratives that prove to change the opinions of the people of Greenland\n\nSocial & Psychological Influence: Targeting the beliefs, emotions, and behaviours of Greenland's population\n\nEconomic Coercion against Greenland or Denmark: Disruption of communication networks, power grids, and  financial systems including the use of tariffs/sanctions\n\nAny deal imposed on Greenland that upsets the Greenlanders/Government would resolve YES as that constitutes interference\n\nThe creator will prioritize statements from the government of Greenland when evaluating resolution\n\n The creator has reiterated that threats through other countries are not in line with the markets purpose. The market focuses on Trump's DIRECT interference with the government of GREENLAND itself, which would require:\n\nA formal meeting including confirmation from the Greenland government that threats were made or intimidation was caused.\n\nA casual/formal visit to Greenland which the government states was an intimidation/a threat.\n\nDirect phone calls to Greenland's leader which causes uproar \n\nLetters/emails..\n\nUpdate 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tariffs on Greenland: If Trump implements tariffs specifically on Greenland, this would count as interference and resolve YES.\n\nMilitary ships sent to Greenland: This will count as interference and resolve YES if Greenland makes a statement saying they feel threatened by it.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:33:59.357000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:08:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61617.208409223,"volume_24hr":1420.1177349362918,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.513145446777344,"normalized_volume":45.02782440185547,"liquidity":300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["magaland","greenland","politics-default","trumps-second-term","donald-trump"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.278263,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump interfere with Greenland?","top_outcome_probability":0.278263,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.5217370000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1420.1177349362918,"updated_at":"2026-09-12T11:01:54.751430Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-12T11:01:54.751430Z","added_at":"2026-09-11T23:23:30.798587Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/will-trump-interfere-with-greenland","chart_24h":[0.8,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.33,0.239307,0.239307,0.278263,0.278263,0.278263],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"su6n5h6AZS","event_id":"su6n5h6AZS","slug":"will-trump-interfere-with-greenland","question":"Will Trump interfere with Greenland?","group_item_title":null,"description":"MOD ENFORCED CRITERIA (as originally defined on Jan 16th 2026, 10 days after market open. see this comment for reasoning):\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if Trump or his administration takes any military, economic, or political action intended to interfere with Greenland's governance, sovereignty, or territorial status before the end of 2026. This includes: military intervention, economic coercion (targeted tariffs or sanctions against Greenland or Denmark), attempted annexation, military occupation, or formal diplomatic pressure through the government of Greenland to cede control. The market resolves NO if no such interference occurs by December 31, 2026.\n\nTHE FOLLOWING DESCRIPTION (after months of drift) MAY HAVE USEFUL CONSIDERATIONS, BUT IS NOT BINDING:\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve “YES” if Trump or his administration takes any direct action intended to interfere with Greenland. This must be done directly through the government of Greenland itself.\n\nBackground\n\nTrump has renewed calls for U.S. annexation of Greenland following public comments from Trump and the wife of top adviser Stephen Miller. Trump has previously refused to rule out the use of military or economic force to take Greenland. In a 45-minute phone conversation with Danish PM Frederiksen, Trump stated there is reason to believe he is serious in his statements about his increasing interest in Greenland. \n\nConsiderations (Denmark)\n\nAs Denmark owns Greenland, territorial integrity must be respected. Any actions taken by Trump that affects Denmark’s economy would have a knock-on financial effect on Greenland.  Any such actions implemented or the use of military methods would also resolve in “YES”\n\n: Additional non-kinetic actions that would result in YES resolution (Must be done by Trump or his administration):\n\nMedia Manipulation: Use of propaganda, disinformation, and control of media narratives that prove to change the opinions of the people of Greenland\n\nSocial & Psychological Influence: Targeting the beliefs, emotions, and behaviours of Greenland's population\n\nEconomic Coercion against Greenland or Denmark: Disruption of communication networks, power grids, and  financial systems including the use of tariffs/sanctions\n\nAny deal imposed on Greenland that upsets the Greenlanders/Government would resolve YES as that constitutes interference\n\nThe creator will prioritize statements from the government of Greenland when evaluating resolution\n\n The creator has reiterated that threats through other countries are not in line with the markets purpose. The market focuses on Trump's DIRECT interference with the government of GREENLAND itself, which would require:\n\nA formal meeting including confirmation from the Greenland government that threats were made or intimidation was caused.\n\nA casual/formal visit to Greenland which the government states was an intimidation/a threat.\n\nDirect phone calls to Greenland's leader which causes uproar \n\nLetters/emails..\n\nUpdate 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tariffs on Greenland: If Trump implements tariffs specifically on Greenland, this would count as interference and resolve YES.\n\nMilitary ships sent to Greenland: This will count as interference and resolve YES if Greenland makes a statement saying they feel threatened by it.\n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.278263,0.721737],"probability":0.278263,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:33:59.357000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:08:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61617.208409223,"volume_24hr":1420.1177349362918,"prob_24h_change":-0.5217370000000001,"volume_24h_change":1420.1177349362918,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.662174224853516,"normalized_volume":45.02782440185547,"liquidity":300.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-12T11:01:29.283303Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-12T11:01:29.283303Z","added_at":"2026-09-11T23:23:30.798587Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Gemc/will-trump-interfere-with-greenland","event_title":"Will Trump interfere with Greenland?","chart_24h":[0.8,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.70761,0.33,0.239307,0.239307,0.278263,0.278263,0.278263]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/su6n5h6AZS","as_of":"2026-09-12T11:06:48.683854Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump interfere with Greenland?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}