{"source":"manifold","id":"t9s0m8tf2v","ticker":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":"who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","description":"Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.\n\nThis market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks. \n\nAdditional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from \"other\".  Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions. \n\nSee also:\n\n@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom \n@/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237 ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ManifoldPolitics/wpfmmxtpup.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":555239.702718346,"volume_24hr":168.8074780056276,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.39260482788086,"normalized_volume":65.6053695678711,"liquidity":21000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.290429,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0010350000000000081,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:54:23.313933Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T14:54:23.313933Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","chart_24h":[92.11723832610744,90.11813179261175,118.66752779313846,106.88220200843342,99.87793201573676,99.87793201573676,103.5038870651958,117.7987467158531,203.70246472587957,240.13601402083765,168.8074780056276],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ACAN2Oh8Cs","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Marco Rubio (US SoS)","group_item_title":"Marco Rubio (US SoS)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.143794,0.856206],"probability":0.143794,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-13T13:37:51.683000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13198.931256432403,"volume_24hr":86.54515068976434,"prob_24h_change":0.0009330000000000171,"volume_24h_change":65.78453479541349,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.304176330566406,"normalized_volume":33.756134033203125,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142861,0.142941,0.142941,0.142941,0.142941,0.142986,0.142986,0.142986,0.142986,0.143199,0.142435,0.143794,0.143794,0.143794,0.143794,0.143794,0.143794,0.143794]},{"source":"manifold","id":"iwz5htfvht","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Gavin Newsom (California Governor)","group_item_title":"Gavin Newsom (California Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17098.23603152141,"volume_24hr":23.768398605196126,"prob_24h_change":-0.0007209999999999994,"volume_24h_change":11.983072820490634,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.942852020263672,"normalized_volume":35.62291717529297,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.140721,0.1409,0.1409,0.1409,0.1409,0.140999,0.140999,0.140999,0.140999,0.141475,0.142123,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yPuc5EZspI","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"AOC (NY Representative)","group_item_title":"AOC (NY Representative)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.063279,0.936721],"probability":0.063279,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-13T13:35:45.083000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9456.39690274468,"volume_24hr":28.54939600052603,"prob_24h_change":-0.00021799999999999597,"volume_24h_change":-37.68698806539942,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.066436767578125,"normalized_volume":31.425384521484375,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.063497,0.062924,0.062924,0.062924,0.062924,0.062946,0.062946,0.062946,0.062946,0.063051,0.063193,0.063279,0.063279,0.063279,0.063279,0.063279,0.063279,0.063279]},{"source":"manifold","id":"38i5lydee6","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Kamala Harris (Vice President)","group_item_title":"Kamala Harris (Vice President)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.036153,0.963847],"probability":0.036153,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":960.9184939985614,"volume_24hr":20.824631702868828,"prob_24h_change":-0.0019380000000000022,"volume_24h_change":20.824631702868828,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.174359321594238,"normalized_volume":17.69230842590332,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038091,0.038098,0.038098,0.038098,0.038098,0.038102,0.038102,0.038102,0.038102,0.037267,0.036138,0.036153,0.036153,0.036153,0.036153,0.036153,0.036153,0.036153]},{"source":"manifold","id":"bjmx83c8yr","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)","group_item_title":"Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012292,0.987708],"probability":0.012292,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":80.70355159351199,"volume_24hr":2.3784660804444684,"prob_24h_change":-0.0005499999999999984,"volume_24h_change":2.3784660804444684,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.4305393695831299,"normalized_volume":7.269808292388916,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012842,0.012849,0.012849,0.012849,0.012849,0.012853,0.012853,0.012853,0.012853,0.012256,0.012278,0.012292,0.012292,0.012292,0.012292,0.012292,0.012292,0.012292]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ULP2SzZCnn","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Cory Booker (NJ Senator)","group_item_title":"Cory Booker (NJ Senator)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005858,0.994142],"probability":0.005858,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-13T13:36:26.383000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":647.5782405474683,"volume_24hr":1.76172564699732,"prob_24h_change":-0.0001399999999999995,"volume_24h_change":-0.24815115911019348,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.9960513710975647,"normalized_volume":15.720152854919434,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005998,0.005999,0.005999,0.005999,0.005999,0.00585,0.00585,0.00585,0.00585,0.005853,0.005856,0.005858,0.005858,0.005858,0.005858,0.005858,0.005858,0.005858]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6lS8y0ZuN8","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)","group_item_title":"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002445,0.997555],"probability":0.002445,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-12T15:49:50.470000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17.32518763019424,"volume_24hr":3.026812668768116,"prob_24h_change":-0.000147,"volume_24h_change":3.026812668768116,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.8728561401367188,"normalized_volume":3.1715950965881348,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002592,0.002444,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445,0.002445]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5q2koq7hck","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Michelle Obama (First Lady)","group_item_title":"Michelle Obama (First Lady)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00186,0.99814],"probability":0.00186,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21.524436248742813,"volume_24hr":1.9528966110639203,"prob_24h_change":-0.00019499999999999986,"volume_24h_change":1.9528966110639203,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.1316273212432861,"normalized_volume":3.637568235397339,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.002055,0.001866,0.001866,0.001866,0.001866,0.001858,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186,0.00186]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2euvmhmf03","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.290429,0.709571],"probability":0.290429,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6412.384956493502,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0010350000000000081,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.815317153930664,"liquidity":2310.356434382589,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289394,0.289498,0.289498,0.289498,0.289498,0.289555,0.289555,0.289555,0.289555,0.289831,0.290204,0.290429,0.290429,0.290429,0.290429,0.290429,0.290429,0.290429]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5j8v0otlro","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"JD Vance (Vice President)","group_item_title":"JD Vance (Vice President)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.194301,0.805699],"probability":0.194301,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25994.563971636082,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.001573999999999992,"volume_24h_change":-21.40524155919411,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.75067901611328,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192727,0.192885,0.192885,0.192885,0.192885,0.192972,0.192972,0.192972,0.192972,0.19339,0.193958,0.194301,0.194301,0.194301,0.194301,0.194301,0.194301,0.194301]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SzNIhspS52","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)","group_item_title":"Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.033535,0.966465],"probability":0.033535,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-14T15:17:22.774000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4710.969565575704,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00011099999999999999,"volume_24h_change":-3.0822751431769575,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.824243545532227,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033424,0.033435,0.033435,0.033435,0.033435,0.033442,0.033442,0.033442,0.033442,0.033471,0.033511,0.033535,0.033535,0.033535,0.033535,0.033535,0.033535,0.033535]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qirrdip75n","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)","group_item_title":"Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.020354,0.979646],"probability":0.020354,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5463.023655711761,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00012200000000000058,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.771738052368164,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020232,0.020244,0.020244,0.020244,0.020244,0.020251,0.020251,0.020251,0.020251,0.020283,0.020327,0.020354,0.020354,0.020354,0.020354,0.020354,0.020354,0.020354]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8gSLqPyusO","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)","group_item_title":"Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.014996,0.985004],"probability":0.014996,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-14T12:57:06.954000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":23723.914619930234,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00003200000000000078,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.0569953918457,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014964,0.014967,0.014967,0.014967,0.014967,0.014969,0.014969,0.014969,0.014969,0.014978,0.014989,0.014996,0.014996,0.014996,0.014996,0.014996,0.014996,0.014996]},{"source":"manifold","id":"adjvh8qhsb","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump (45th President)","group_item_title":"Donald Trump (45th President)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.008258,0.991742],"probability":0.008258,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5293.653887310683,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00002499999999999898,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.568885803222656,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008233,0.008235,0.008235,0.008235,0.008235,0.008237,0.008237,0.008237,0.008237,0.008244,0.008253,0.008258,0.008258,0.008258,0.008258,0.008258,0.008258,0.008258]},{"source":"manifold","id":"osfgm9gm77","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)","group_item_title":"Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.008,0.992],"probability":0.008,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.038479632547215,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.000021000000000000185,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.338812351226807,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007979,0.007981,0.007981,0.007981,0.007981,0.007982,0.007982,0.007982,0.007982,0.007988,0.007995,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008,0.008]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZNlQU5ychh","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)","group_item_title":"Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007059,0.992941],"probability":0.007059,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-13T13:37:30.549000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4123.49502824047,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.000011999999999999858,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.986238479614258,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007047,0.007048,0.007048,0.007048,0.007048,0.007049,0.007049,0.007049,0.007049,0.007052,0.007056,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059]},{"source":"manifold","id":"r4rs7l5zed","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)","group_item_title":"Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.006869,0.993131],"probability":0.006869,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5231.902435533777,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.000023999999999999716,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.493497848510742,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006845,0.006847,0.006847,0.006847,0.006847,0.006848,0.006848,0.006848,0.006848,0.006855,0.006864,0.006869,0.006869,0.006869,0.006869,0.006869,0.006869,0.006869]},{"source":"manifold","id":"udtgiw6q2i","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)","group_item_title":"Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003845,0.996155],"probability":0.003845,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":36.55959867217484,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.000010999999999999725,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.9299774169921875,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003834,0.003835,0.003835,0.003835,0.003835,0.003836,0.003836,0.003836,0.003836,0.003839,0.003843,0.003845,0.003845,0.003845,0.003845,0.003845,0.003845,0.003845]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SguPsltL6c","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)","group_item_title":"Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003205,0.996795],"probability":0.003205,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-14T12:56:34.764000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1774.1991817427297,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":4.000000000000097e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.989553451538086,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003201,0.003202,0.003202,0.003202,0.003202,0.003203,0.003204,0.003205,0.003205,0.003205,0.003205,0.003205,0.003205,0.003205]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d57250mir9","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)","group_item_title":"Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002137,0.997863],"probability":0.002137,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-13T19:21:20.166000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":86.50632420600864,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":4.000000000000097e-6,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.49814510345459,"liquidity":180.90680674665816,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002133,0.002134,0.002134,0.002134,0.002134,0.002135,0.002136,0.002137,0.002137,0.002137,0.002137,0.002137,0.002137,0.002137]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CtZtLcZs0g","event_id":"t9s0m8tf2v","slug":null,"question":"Stephen A. Smith","group_item_title":"Stephen A. Smith","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001331,0.998669],"probability":0.001331,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-13T22:31:00.473000Z","end_date":"2028-11-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11.014557150155063,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":9.999999999999159e-7,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.317662477493286,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","event_title":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","chart_24h":[0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.00133,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331,0.001331]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/t9s0m8tf2v","as_of":"2026-07-25T19:10:15.941126Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?\" — top market at 14% probability across 21 outcomes","source_url":null}}